Hvidovre vs Hillerød Prediction

Hvidovre are the side to back here, and the numbers make a compelling case. The home side have won their last two matches and collected 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 6 in that stretch. The 2–1 win at Vejle on 9 October and the 3–1 demolition of Hobro on 4 September show a team that is scoring freely while keeping the back door locked. In their last 10 games across all venues, Hvidovre have recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss at 2.3 points per game, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.9 conceded.

Hillerød, on the other hand, are in a different world. Their last five matches have produced 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, and the most recent result was a 0–2 home defeat to FC Fredericia on 10 October. They have scored just 4 goals in those five games and every single match has finished under 2.5 goals. Their away record over the last 20 games is 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses at 0.85 points per game, with 6 of those 20 games seeing them fail to score at all.

The head-to-head over the last 12 months is the one wrinkle in an otherwise clear picture. Hillerød took a 2–1 win at their own ground in May, and the other two recent meetings were draws — a 1–1 at Hvidovre's ground in April and another 1–1 at Hillerød's ground in October 2025. So Hvidovre have not won this fixture in the last three attempts. That said, three meetings is a small number of fixtures, and the form gap between the two sides now is substantial. Hvidovre are averaging 2.4 goals per game over their last five, while Hillerød are managing 0.8.

The counter-argument is that Hvidovre's home record over 20 games includes 9 draws, and the recent head-to-head has not produced a Hvidovre victory. Hillerød have also kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 20 away games, and their last five matches have all been low-scoring. A 1–1 or 0–0 is not out of the question. But the weight of evidence — Hvidovre's scoring output, Hillerød's defensive vulnerability on the road, and the overall points-per-game gap — points firmly to the home side.

The 1.7 price on a Hvidovre win implies a 58.82% chance according to the bookmaker. My own reading of the form, the venue records and the scoring data puts the home win closer to 63%. That is a small but real edge, and it is the kind of mispricing that is worth acting on. Odds don't lie, but the compilers clearly have not fully priced in how badly Hillerød are travelling on the road.

Key Points:

• Hvidovre have won their last 2 and 4 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 goals per game

• Hillerød lost their last game 0–2 and have won just 1 of their last 5

• Hillerød's away record over 20 games: 3W 8D 9L at 0.85 ppg

• Hvidovre's last 5 matches all went over 2.5 goals and saw both teams score

• Recent head-to-head at Hvidovre's ground: 1–1 draw (April 2026)

My pick: Hvidovre home win.