Preview
PajimonLook, I'll be straight with you – this one's got the smell of a low-scoring grind about it, and I'm not talking about the kind of grind where you're flipping boerewors on the braai at 16. IFK Norrkoping are at home, and their record at this ground over the last 20 games is 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses. They've kept 14 clean sheets in those 20 and only failed to score in 4 of them. That's a team that shuts the door, lets you in for a coffee, then shows you out.
GIF Sundsvall, on the other hand, have been on the wrong end of things on the road. Over the last 20 away games, they've managed 5 wins, 2 draws and 13 losses. They've scored just 0.65 goals per game on the road and failed to score in 11 of those 20. Their last five matches have been 2 wins and 3 losses, and they've failed to score in 3 of those 5. The 0–4 loss to Landskrona BoIS and the 0–3 to Orebro SK in that stretch don't exactly fill you with confidence when you're packing the kit bag for a trip to Norrkoping.
The head-to-head is interesting, though I'll be upfront – most of it is historical. The full record spans 9 years with 12 meetings, and IFK Norrkoping have won 8, drawn 4 and lost 0. But the only meeting within the last 12 months was back in May at Sundsvall's ground, where Norrkoping won 3–1. At this specific venue, there have been no recent meetings, so we're leaning on current form and the venue records rather than a direct head-to-head at this ground.
The counter-argument? Well, Norrkoping's last five games have been 2 wins and 3 draws – two of those were 0–0. They haven't lost, sure, but they haven't exactly been tearing it up either. And Sundsvall did pick up 3–2 against Ljungskile at home three weeks ago, so they're not completely dead. But that's a home game, and the away numbers tell a very different story.
Key Points:
- IFK Norrkoping: 13W 5D 2L at home in 20 games, 14 clean sheets, 4/20 failed to score
- GIF Sundsvall: 5W 2D 13L away in 20 games, 11/20 failed to score, 0.65 goals per game on the road
- Recent form: Norrkoping 2W 3D 0L; Sundsvall 2W 0D 3L
- BTTS No: 15/20 at Norrkoping's ground, 13/20 in Sundsvall's away games, 3/5 and 4/5 in recent form
- H2H: 8W 4D 0L overall (mostly historical); 1 recent meeting won by Norrkoping 3–1
Verdict: I'm going with both teams not to score. The numbers at this ground and on the road both point to at least one team staying quiet, and the price of 1.85 is fair for what the evidence is telling me.