Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so IFK Norrkoping are at home to GIF Sundsvall on 13 October in the Superettan, and if you've been following this one, you'll know the Norrkoping end of the fixture is a bit of a one-man show.
Let's start with the numbers that actually matter. Over their last 20 home games, IFK Norrkoping have won 13, drawn 5 and lost just 2. That's 2.2 points per game, 1.95 goals a game, and they've kept 14 clean sheets in 20. Meanwhile, GIF Sundsvall's last 20 away games read 5 wins, 2 draws and 13 losses. They've scored 0.65 a game and conceded 1.9. That's not a close comparison — that's a gulf.
The head-to-head backs it up. In 12 meetings going back to 2016, IFK Norrkoping have won 8, drawn 4 and lost 0. Now, most of those are historical — the dates stretch back nearly nine years — but the one recent meeting, back in May at Sundsvall's ground, ended 1–3 to Norrkoping. And at Norrkoping's own ground in the older meetings, they've won both times (5–1 and 2–0). So the pattern is clear, even if the head-to-head is a bit dated.
Norrkoping's recent form is solid. Their last 10 games are 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses. They've scored 20 and conceded 7. The last three home games have been draws — 0–0 with Kalmar FF, 0–0 with Oddevold, 2–2 with Ljungskile SK — so they're not exactly tearing it up at home of late, but they haven't lost either. The away wins (3–1 at Osters IF, 2–0 at Varbergs BoIS FC) show the edge is still there.
Sundsvall, on the other hand, are struggling. Their last 5 is 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses. They've scored 4 and conceded 10. Away from home in that stretch, they've lost 0–1 to Sandviken and 0–4 to Landskrona BoIS, with just a 1–0 win at IK brage. They've failed to score in 11 of their last 20 away games. That's a team that's having a hard time on the road.
Now, the counter-argument: Norrkoping's last three home games have been low-scoring draws, and their last 10 shows 6 of 10 games went over 2.5. So there's a bit of a split in the data. Sundsvall did pick up a 3–2 win at home against Ljungskile SK three weeks ago, so they're not without a spark. And the head-to-head, while heavily in Norrkoping's favour, is mostly historical — the one recent meeting was five months ago.
But when you stack it all up — the home record, the away record, the head-to-head, the recent form — the picture is pretty clear. Norrkoping are the stronger side here, and the scoring pattern across both teams' records points to at least one of them failing to find the net. Sundsvall have gone blank in 3 of their last 5 games, and Norrkoping have failed to score in 2 of their last 5. The 20-game home record shows 15 of 20 games where at least one team didn't score, and Sundsvall's 20-game away record shows 13 of 20 the same way. At 1.85, both teams not to score offers a sensible price for what the numbers are telling us.
Key Points:
- IFK Norrkoping's last 20 home games: 13W 5D 2L, 14 clean sheets, 1.95 goals per game
- GIF Sundsvall's last 20 away games: 5W 2D 13L, 11 failed to score, 0.65 goals per game
- Head-to-head: 8 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses for Norrkoping across 12 meetings (mostly historical)
- Sundsvall have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 games and 11 of their last 20 away games
- Norrkoping are unbeaten in their last 10 games (6W 4D 0L)
Verdict: I'm going with both teams not to score.