Inter Miami vs DC United Prediction

Inter Miami host DC United on 10 October in Major League Soccer, and if you want one number that tells you everything about this fixture, it's this: in 20 home games, Inter Miami have scored in all 20, and both teams have found the net in 18 of them. That's a 90% both-teams-to-score rate at their ground, and it's the single most consistent stat in this preview.

DC United's away record feeds right into that. Over 20 away games, both teams have scored in 13 of them. They failed to score in 6 — but in the other 14, they got on the scoresheet. Their last five matches saw them score in 3 of 5, including a 3-3 draw at Vancouver Whitecaps on 27 September. They're not a team that shuts up. They're a team that concedes and responds.

The head-to-head backs it up. Across 12 meetings spanning six years, both teams scored in 9. The only meeting within the last 12 months — at DC United's ground on 7 March 2026 — finished 1-2, with both sides on the sheet. Historically at Inter Miami's ground, the two meetings produced 3-2 and 1-0. One was open, the other a clean sheet.

Now, the counter-argument. Inter Miami's recent form is patchy: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in their last five, capped by a 1-2 defeat at Columbus Crew on 27 September where they lost a player to a red card in the 90th minute. DC United are no better — 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in their last five, including a 0-1 home loss to SC Paderborn 07 on 30 September. Both teams are in a one-game losing run. The draw rate at Inter Miami's ground is 40% over 20 games, and DC United's away record is 50% draws. A level score is genuinely on the table.

But here's where the value sits. The market prices both teams to score at 1.47, implying a 68.03% chance. The raw numbers say otherwise. Inter Miami's home BTTS rate is 90%. DC United's away BTTS rate is 65%. The head-to-head is 75%. Inter Miami's last 10 games: 9 of 10 saw both teams score. DC United's last 10: 6 of 10. When you stack those up, the 68% the bookies are offering looks short. I'd put the true probability closer to 75%, which means the 1.47 price is paying you for something the numbers say is more likely than the market thinks.

DC United's xG data adds a final layer. Across 5 recent games, they've generated 1.75 expected goals per game but actually scored only 4 — that's 0.8 per game. They're creating chances they're not converting. In a match where Inter Miami score in every home game, that underperformance is likely to correct, and DC United's goals will come.

Key Points:

• Inter Miami have scored in all 20 home games; both teams scored in 18 of 20

• DC United's away record: both teams scored in 13 of 20 games

• Head-to-head: both teams scored in 9 of 12 meetings, including the only recent meeting (1-2)

• Inter Miami's last 10 games: 9 of 10 saw both teams score

• DC United's xG (1.75/game) far exceeds their actual output (0.8/game), suggesting a scoring correction is due

The bet is both teams to score at 1.47.