Preview
Value VinnyThe numbers don't lie, and in this one they're screaming the same message from every angle. Inter Miami have failed to score in just 0 of their last 20 home games and 0 of their last 10 across all venues. That's not a trend — that's a habit. New York City FC, for their part, have found the net in 16 of their last 20 away outings. Stack those two facts together and the picture is hard to argue with: both sides are putting the ball in the back of the net.
The head-to-head backs it up. In the two meetings within the last 12 months, both teams scored. Inter Miami won 5–1 at their own ground on 29 November 2025 and 3–2 at New York City FC's place on 22 March 2026. Six goals in the first, five in the second. The older meetings from 2024 and 2025 are historical record and I won't lean on them, but even those show goals flowing — 0–4, 2–2, 1–1. The recent meetings are the ones that matter, and they both went the same way.
Inter Miami's home record over 20 games tells the story: 17 of 20 saw both teams score. Their last five matches produced over 2.5 goals in four of five, and their last 10 went over in eight. New York City FC's away record over 20 games shows 14 of 20 with both teams finding the net, and their last 10 had seven. The xG numbers add texture: Inter Miami are generating 2.06 xG per game on the attack over their last five matches with data, while New York City FC are creating 1.63 per game over their last six matches with data. Both are well above the threshold where a team goes scoreless.
The counter-argument is real but narrow. Inter Miami have drawn 8 of their 20 home games, and New York City FC have failed to score in 4 of 20 away matches. A 0–0 or a 1–0 is not out of the question. Inter Miami's last five at home included two 2–2 draws. But 17 out of 20 at home and 14 out of 20 on the road is a very high bar to clear for a scoreless result. The market prices both teams to score at 1.44, implying about 69%. My read, based on the scoring records, the head-to-head and the xG creation, puts the true probability closer to 78%. That's a genuine edge, and that's what I live for.
Key Points:
- Inter Miami have scored in all 20 of their home games and all 10 of their recent matches
- New York City FC have scored in 16 of their last 20 away games
- Both recent head-to-head meetings saw both teams find the net (5–1 and 2–3)
- Inter Miami's home record: 17 of 20 BTTS yes; New York City FC's away record: 14 of 20 BTTS yes
- The market's 69% implied probability undersells the evidence at 1.44
Verdict: Both teams to score at 1.44.