Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Inter Miami hosting New York City FC on 14 October, and I'm telling you, this one smells of goals. Like a boerewors braai on an evening – you can see the smoke rolling from a kilometre away and you know the meat is going to be good.
Inter Miami have been cooking at home. Over their last 20 home games, they've scored 2.6 goals per game and, more importantly, they haven't failed to score in a single one of those 20 fixtures. Zero. Not a single blank sheet on the attack. And in 17 of those 20 home games, both teams found the net. That's a lot of goals going through. Their last five matches have seen them score 11 and concede 6, with a 4-0 demolition of DC United just four days before this one. They're on a winning run, and the form is there.
New York City FC, on the other hand, have been struggling on the road. Their last five games have produced just one win, one draw and three losses, with 6 goals scored and 7 conceded. Over 20 away games, they've managed 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses, scoring 1.3 per game. But here's the thing – in 14 of those 20 away games, both teams scored. They're not a team that shuts up shop and parks the bus. They put goals on the board, even when they're losing.
Now, the head-to-head tells a clear story. In the last 12 months, Inter Miami have won both meetings – 5-1 at their own ground in November 2025 and 3-2 at New York City FC's place in March 2026. At this venue, the only recent meeting was that 5-1 thrashing. The older meetings go back further, but those are historical and don't really tell you what's happening now. What matters is the last year, and Inter Miami have had their way.
The expected goals numbers back it up too. Inter Miami are averaging 2.06 xG per game in their last five matches with xG data, while New York City FC are averaging 1.63. And Inter Miami's opponents are averaging 1.28 xG against them, while New York City FC's opponents are averaging 1.61. So you've got a team that scores a lot at home meeting a team that scores a fair bit on the road. The combined scoring rate at this venue is 2.6 plus 1.3 – nearly four goals a game on the numbers.
The counter-argument? Inter Miami have drawn 8 of their last 20 home games, and two of their last four home fixtures ended level – 2-2 with San Diego and 2-2 with Nashville. New York City FC did pick up a 2-0 win at Real Salt Lake four weeks ago, and they've scored in 4 of their last 5 games. So it's not like the visitors are completely toothless. And Inter Miami's 4-0 win, while impressive, is just one game.
But the numbers keep pointing the same way. Both teams have scored in 17 of 20 and 14 of 20 of their respective home and away games. Both recent head-to-head meetings saw both sides find the net. The xG data says goals are coming. I rate the chance of both teams scoring at around 73%, which sits above the market's 69.44% view on the 1.44 price. The evidence is solid, the form is there, and I'm comfortable with this one.
Key Points:
- Inter Miami have not failed to score in any of their last 20 home games
- New York City FC have scored in 16 of their last 20 away games
- Both recent head-to-head meetings (5-1 and 3-2) saw both teams score
- Inter Miami's last 5 games: 11 goals scored, 6 conceded
- New York City FC's last 5 games: 6 goals scored, 7 conceded
My pick: both teams to score.