Preview
Mr SimpleRight, let's have a chat about this one. FC jazz have had the edge in this Ykkönen fixture, and the numbers back that up nicely. Over the last 10 games, FC jazz have won 5, drawn 4 and lost just 1, scoring 20 goals and conceding only 9. Inter Turku II, by contrast, have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 in the same stretch, scoring 13 and conceding 12. That's a clear gap in form, and it's not a close one.
Now look at the home and away records and the picture gets even clearer. Over 20 home games, Inter Turku II have won 5, drawn 5 and lost 10, averaging 1 point per game and conceding 1.95 per match. FC jazz on the road have won 9, drawn 3 and lost 8, averaging 1.5 points per game and conceding 1.55. FC jazz score more away (1.7 per game) and keep more clean sheets (5 out of 20) than Inter Turku II do at home (1 out of 20). In most of those columns, the visitors look the better proposition.
The head-to-head at this ground is thin. The only recent meeting here was a 1–1 draw on 12 June. The older meetings at Inter Turku II's ground — a 2–1 win for the hosts and a 1–2 loss — are historical record and don't really tell us where things are now. What does tell us is that FC jazz beat Inter Turku II 2–0 at their own ground on 29 August, and before that Inter Turku II had lost 0–1 at home to TPV. Three straight defeats before the bounce-back.
The counter-argument is Inter Turku II's last two games: 3–0 away at KuPS Akatemia and 3–0 at home to TPV. Six goals, no concessions. That's a bit of a bounce-back, and it's fair to say they've found some confidence. But two clean-sheet wins doesn't rewrite a 20-game home record that's seen 10 defeats, and the overall picture still points to FC jazz being the better side on the day. Their last five has been 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, with 1.8 goals scored per game and just 0.8 conceded.
Key Points:
- FC jazz's last 10: 5W 4D 1L, 2.0 goals scored per game, 0.9 conceded
- Inter Turku II's last 10: 3W 2D 5L, 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded
- 20-game home record: Inter Turku II 5W 5D 10L; 20-game away record: FC jazz 9W 3D 8L
- Recent H2H at this ground: 1–1 draw (12 June); FC jazz won 2–0 at their own ground (29 August)
- FC jazz's last 5: 3W 1D 1L, scoring 1.8 per game, conceding 0.8
So here's the call: FC jazz away win at 3.12. The market prices them at 32.05%, but the form, the away record and the head-to-head all say they're more likely than that. This is the one with the value in it.