Inter vs Bologna Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Inter are sitting pretty at the top of Serie A, but they've got a bit of a bogey team coming to town in Bologna. The visitors are no mugs, sitting seventh themselves, and they've already shown they can get a result against the leaders this season.

Inter's form is all about wins and losses – no draws in 16 league games! That's proper ‘go for it’ football. They've won six of their last ten, including a nice 1-0 away at a decent Atalanta side and a 4-0 demolition of a strong Como team at home. But they've also come unstuck against the very best, losing to AC Milan and Liverpool at home. At the San Siro, they're a force, averaging 2.2 goals scored and conceding just 0.6 per game. They know how to turn it on in front of their own fans.

Bologna's recent results are a bit of a mixed bag. They drew with Inter just a couple of weeks ago in the Super Cup (1-1), which will give them belief. They also nicked a draw away at Lazio. But they've also had some stinkers, like losing 3-1 at home to Cremonese. On the road, they're scoring a steady 1.5 goals per game but are conceding one as well. Their problem is they can't keep the door shut – just one clean sheet in their last ten outings.

The head-to-head makes for interesting reading. Bologna have actually won more of the last nine meetings (three to Inter's two), with four draws. At Inter's ground, it's been a draw-fest: one Inter win and three draws in the last four. So history says this might be tighter than the league table suggests.

When you crunch the numbers, Inter create more chances (14.5 shots to Bologna's 12.25 away) and are more accurate with their passing. Bologna's form is trending downwards across the board – goals, points, the lot. Their last three games have yielded an average of just 0.67 goals and 0.67 points. Not ideal coming to the league leaders.

Key Points:

Inter are Serie A leaders with a perfect ‘no draw’ record (12 wins, 4 losses).

Bologna held Inter to a 1-1 draw in the Super Cup just two weeks ago.

Inter average 2.8 total goals per home game; Bologna average 2.5 total goals per away game.

Bologna have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten matches.

• Head-to-head at Inter's stadium favours draws, but Inter's current home form is formidable.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Inter at a short 1.45 to win. That's probably about right, but there's no real value there for me. The draw is tempting given the history, but Inter simply don't draw league games. The value, in my book, lies in the goals. Inter's home games are lively (2.8 goals on average), and Bologna's away games aren't far behind (2.5). With Bologna's leaky defence and Inter's firepower, I fancy we'll see at least three goals. The odds for Over 2.5 Goals are a decent 1.73, and that's where I'm putting my money.