Internacional vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction

Right then, let's get stuck into the Serie A opener. Internacional welcome Atletico Paranaense to Porto Alegre, and if the numbers are anything to go by, we could be in for a proper game.

Internacional have been a bit of a fortress at home lately. In their last five at their gaff, they're unbeaten with three wins and two draws. More importantly, they're scoring for fun – 1.8 goals a game on average. But here's the rub: they've also been a bit leaky. In four of those five home games, both teams found the net. That 2-0 win over Inter Santa Maria was the only clean sheet. Before that, they shipped goals to the likes of Santos (1-1) and RB Bragantino (3-1 win). So, they can score, but they can also concede.

Now, Atletico Paranaense roll into town with some serious form in their back pocket. Seven wins from their last ten is no joke, and they've been solid on the road too, winning three of their last five away. They're averaging 1.4 goals on their travels and have scored in four of those five games. Their defence has been tidy, conceding just one a game away, but they did come unstuck recently with back-to-back losses to Azuriz and Coritiba in the state league. Still, they know where the net is.

When these two have met in the past, it's been a close-run thing. Atletico have the slight edge overall with four wins to Inter's two, but at Inter's place, it's two wins apiece and a draw from five meetings. The last time they squared off, it finished 2-2. Goals? They've happened. Four of the nine meetings saw over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in four as well.

So, what's the play? The bookies have Internacional as slight favourites at home at 1.95. That's fair enough given their home record, but Atletico are no mugs and are priced at a tempting 4.10. The value, for my money, lies elsewhere. The market reckons there's a 51% chance both teams score, offering 1.95. I think that's a bit short. Looking at Inter's recent home games and Atletico's ability to score on the road, I'd put the chances closer to 60%. That makes the 1.95 for 'Yes' look like a bit of value.

Key Points:

Internacional are strong at home (unbeaten in 5) but have kept just one clean sheet in that run.

Atletico Paranaense are in excellent overall form (7 wins in 10) and score regularly away.

Head-to-head history is tight, with the last meeting ending 2-2.

Recent trends suggest a high probability of both teams finding the net.

The Verdict: This has the makings of a lively opener. Internacional will fancy their chances at home, but Atletico have the quality to hurt them. I can see goals at both ends. The smart money, with a bit of value on our side, is on Both Teams to Score - Yes.