Inverness CT vs Queen of the South Prediction

Odds don't lie — but bookies do. When hunting for value, we ignore the noise and focus on the math. In this League One fixture between Inverness CT and Queen of the South, the numbers tell a compelling story about home dominance.

Inverness CT sits firmly at the top of the table with 57 points from 30 games. Their form is exceptional: 5 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses in their last 10 matches. This undefeated run gives them 2.00 points per game. At home specifically, Inverness has a 60% win rate in their last 5 games, scoring 2.20 goals per game while conceding just 0.80.

Queen of the South sits in 4th place with 44 points. Their last 10 games show 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, averaging 1.30 points per game. While they have a high away scoring rate of 2.75 goals per game, they have conceded 1.50 goals per game away. This creates an interesting statistical tension with Inverness's solid home defense.

Head-to-head history is crucial here. Inverness CT has a 75% win rate at home against Queen of the South (3 wins, 1 loss in 4 home meetings). The last meeting on 2026-01-31 ended in a 2-2 draw. However, Inverness's current form suggests they are stronger now than they were then.

The goal expectancy models suggest a total of 3.62 expected goals (Home 1.85, Away 1.77). The odds for Over 2.5 Goals are 1.73, implying a 57.8% probability. However, the strongest value lies in the match result. Inverness Home Win odds are 1.48, implying a 67.6% probability. Given their 0 losses in 10 games, 1st place standing, and 75% H2H home win rate, I estimate their true win probability is closer to 75%. This creates a clear Expected Value (EV) of over 11%, well above the 3% threshold.

Key Points:

• Inverness CT is 1st with 57 points, undefeated in last 10 games.

• Queen of the South is 4th with 44 points, 3 wins in last 10.

• Inverness has a 75% win rate at home against QoS.

• Inverness Home Win odds at 1.48 offer significant value based on form.

• Goal expectancy totals 3.62, supporting high scoring potential.

The math is clear: Inverness CT is the value pick. With a 75% estimated win probability against 1.48 odds, the edge is substantial. I am recommending a Home Win.

Recommended Bet: Inverness CT to Win.