Ipswich vs Blackburn Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship clash. Ipswich at home against Blackburn – on paper, it's a bit of a no-brainer, innit? But let's dig into the numbers and see if the bookies have got it right.

Ipswich are sitting pretty in 3rd, just eight points off the top with a game in hand. They've been absolutely flying at home lately – five wins from their last five at Portman Road, scoring an average of 2.20 goals per game and conceding just 0.60. That's proper home form. Look at their recent results: a 2-1 win over league leaders Coventry, a 3-0 thumping of the same Coventry side, and a 3-1 win over Sheffield Wednesday. They're not just beating the strugglers; they're taking points off the big boys too.

Now, Blackburn... bless 'em. They're down in 20th, just three points above the drop zone, and their away form is, well, let's be honest, rubbish. No wins in their last five on the road. In fact, they've drawn four and lost one, scoring a measly 0.40 goals per game away from home. Their last three away matches? All 0-0 draws – against Hull City, Sheffield Wednesday, and Middlesbrough. They're tighter than a duck's backside at the back away from home (conceding just 0.60 per game), but they can't buy a goal.

The head-to-head makes for good reading if you're an Ipswich fan. They've won three of the four meetings at Portman Road, drawing the other. The last time they met was just last month – a 1-1 draw at Ewood Park. But that was at Blackburn's gaff. At home, Ipswich are a different beast.

Let's talk stats. Ipswich average 17.2 shots per game with 5.7 on target and 58.8% possession. Blackburn? 13 shots, 2.9 on target, and 48.6% possession. Ipswich's pass accuracy is 83% compared to Blackburn's 72%. It's a mismatch in quality, plain and simple.

The bookies have Ipswich at 1.53 to win. That implies they think there's about a 65% chance. I reckon that's a bit generous to Blackburn, given everything we've just looked at. I'd put Ipswich's chances closer to 70-75% here. That makes the 1.53 look like decent value.

Could Blackburn nick a draw? They're the draw specialists lately – seven draws in their last ten. But all those away draws have been 0-0 or 1-1 against teams not as good as Ipswich. At 4.10 for the draw, it's tempting for the serial drawers, but I can't see past the home win.

Both teams to score? Blackburn struggle to score away, and Ipswich keep clean sheets in 40% of their games. At 1.73 for 'No', that's not a bad shout either. But for me, the value is in the home win.

Key Points:

• Ipswich have won 100% of their last 5 home games (5 wins)

• Blackburn have won 0% of their last 5 away games (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss)

• Ipswich score 2.20 goals per game at home; Blackburn score just 0.40 away

• Head-to-head: Ipswich unbeaten at home vs Blackburn (3 wins, 1 draw)

• Last meeting: 1-1 draw at Blackburn in December

• League position: Ipswich 3rd (44 pts) vs Blackburn 20th (28 pts)

Summary: This is a classic case of a top-side at home against a struggling away team. Ipswich's home fortress meets Blackburn's travel sickness. The stats, the form, the league table – they all point one way. Back Ipswich to get the job done at Portman Road.