Ipswich vs Preston Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship clash. Ipswich, sitting pretty in 3rd, welcome Preston, who are 9th and looking a bit wobbly. On paper, it's a home banker, but we all know football isn't played on paper, is it? Let's get stuck in.

Ipswich are absolutely flying at home. Their last six at Portman Road? All wins. That's a 100% record. They're banging in over two goals a game on average and have only conceded a measly 0.5 per match in that run. That's proper fortress stuff. Their recent results tell a story of a team that can mix it with the best – a 2-0 away win at league leaders Coventry just before Christmas was a real statement. Sure, they had a blip losing 3-1 at Sheffield Utd last time out, but that was on the road. At home, they've been ruthless, seeing off Bristol City (2-0), Blackburn (3-0), and Sheffield Wednesday (3-1) with ease.

Preston, on the other hand, are having a bit of a nightmare. Their last five games read: lost 4-0, lost 3-0, lost 1-0, lost 1-0 (in the cup), and then a win. And that win was against the league's whipping boys, Sheffield Wednesday. When they've faced decent sides recently – Middlesbrough, Hull City, Derby – they've come up short, and often without scoring. They've failed to net in four of their last five outings. That's a worrying trend for any side coming up against a defensively solid Ipswich.

Looking at the head-to-head, Ipswich have generally had the upper hand, especially at home where they've won two and drawn one of the last three meetings. Preston did win the reverse fixture 1-0 back in August, but that feels a lifetime ago given the current form trajectories.

The stats paint a clear picture too. Ipswich dominate the ball, averaging 58% possession and firing off over 17 shots a game. Preston, especially away from home, see less of it (42%) and create fewer chances (9 shots per game). It's a classic case of a confident, attacking home side against an away team struggling for goals and confidence.

The bookies have Ipswich at a skinny 1.36 to win. Sometimes those short prices put you off, but sometimes they're just telling you the obvious. Given everything we've seen – the 100% home form, Preston's goal drought, the sheer gulf in recent performances – it's hard to see anything other than an Ipswich victory.

Key Points:

Ipswich have won their last 6 home games, scoring 2+ goals in most.

Preston have lost 4 of their last 5, failing to score in 4 of them.

Ipswich average 2.17 goals per game at home; Preston concede 1.40 on the road.

Head-to-head favours Ipswich at Portman Road (2 wins, 1 draw in last 3).

• Preston's recent defeats have come against sides in the top half, a trend Ipswich fit perfectly.

Summary:

All the signs point one way. Ipswich are a juggernaut at home, Preston are stumbling and not scoring. The value might not be huge in the price, but sometimes the best bet is the most obvious one. Back the Tractor Boys to get back on track with a comfortable home win.