Ipswich vs Wrexham Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship clash between Ipswich and Wrexham. The lads from Portman Road are sitting pretty in 7th spot with 23 points, while Wrexham are down in 13th on 21 points. On paper, it's a proper mid-table battle, but when you dig into the numbers, there's a clear story emerging.

Ipswich have been banging them in recently, haven't they? Six wins in their last ten games, and they're averaging 2.2 goals per match. They've had some proper results too - putting four past both Swansea and QPR, and even hammering Sheffield Utd 5-0. At home, they're even better, winning two-thirds of their games and scoring two goals per match on their own patch. They're not perfect though - they did get turned over 3-0 by Charlton not too long ago, which shows they can be caught cold.

Wrexham, on the other hand, are a different kettle of fish. They're not exactly free-scoring, averaging just a goal per game, and away from home they're even more cautious. In fact, they haven't won any of their last four away matches, managing just three draws and a loss. They only score 0.5 goals per away game, which is hardly going to set the world alight, is it? To be fair, they are hard to beat - they've drawn five of their last ten matches and kept three clean sheets in that run.

The stats tell a clear story here. Ipswich are averaging 17 shots per game compared to Wrexham's 10.6, and they have more possession (55.2% vs 45.9%). When you look at recent results, Ipswich have been scoring for fun against teams around Wrexham's level, while Wrexham have been grinding out draws and narrow wins.

The betting market has Ipswich as clear favorites at 1.53, and that looks about right to me. Wrexham's away form is just too poor to ignore - they're not scoring enough goals on the road to trouble a team that's averaging over two goals per game at home. While Wrexham are decent defensively away (only conceding 0.75 per away game), I can't see them keeping Ipswich quiet for 90 minutes.

Both teams to score is priced at 1.83, which could be interesting given Ipswich's defensive record (they've kept only 2 clean sheets in 10 games), but I'm leaning towards the home win here. The value looks solid, and the form book points strongly towards an Ipswich victory.