Iwaki vs Ventforet Kofu Prediction

Right, so Iwaki are at home for this one, and if you've been keeping an eye on their record at their own ground, it's a pretty solid one. Twenty home games, nine wins, five draws, six losses. They're averaging 1.6 points a game, scoring 1.15 a match and keeping it to 0.9 conceded. That's a team that knows how to get results at home.

Ventforet Kofu, though, have been having a bit of a nightmare on the road. Twenty away games have produced seven wins, three draws and ten losses. They're averaging 1.2 points, scoring 0.75 and conceding 1.4. That's a tough record to drag around with you, and it's showing in their recent form.

Kofu have won just one of their last five — a 2-1 home win over Tochigi City on 10 October — and they've conceded 12 goals in that stretch. A 1-5 thrashing at Omiya Ardija on 26 September and a 1-3 loss to Kashima on 23 September (Emperor Cup) have left them looking a bit rattled. Iwaki, for their part, picked up a 1-0 home win over Blaublitz Akita on 11 October, though they did lose 0-2 to Vegalta Sendai at home on 26 September and 1-2 to Consadole Sapporo on 4 October. So it's not all sunshine for the hosts either.

Now, the head-to-head at this venue is a bit of a wrinkle. The most recent meeting here, on 9 May 2026, ended 0-1 to Kofu. Going further back, the older meetings at Iwaki's ground — a 2-3 loss and a 1-1 draw — are historical record only. That said, we're talking about one recent game here, and Iwaki's broader home record of nine wins in 20 is the more telling number.

The counter-argument, and I'll be fair, is that Iwaki's recent form is not exactly sparkling. Three losses in their last five, including that 0-2 home defeat to Sendai, suggests they're not at their best. And the H2H at this ground, even if it's a small sample, does show Kofu getting the better of them. So there's a case for caution.

Key Points:

• Iwaki's home record: 9W 5D 6L in 20 games, 1.6 points per game, 0.9 conceded per game

• Kofu's away record: 7W 3D 10L in 20 games, 1.2 points per game, 1.4 conceded per game

• Kofu's last five: 1W 4L, 12 goals conceded

• H2H at Iwaki's ground (recent): 0-1 to Kofu on 9 May 2026

• Iwaki won their last home game 1-0 on 11 October

Market's pricing Iwaki at 1.82, which implies about 55% chance. My read of the form and the records puts them a touch higher than that — I'd say around 57%. The home record, Kofu's poor away numbers and their last five all point the same way. I'm going with the Iwaki home win.