Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo Prediction

The force is strong with VVV Venlo, and the numbers bear witness to it. Three wins from their last five matches, twelve goals scored across that span, and not a single failure to find the net in their last ten games. Their points per game across the latest ten stands at 1.8, while their scoring rate of 2.5 per game tells a story of a side that is clicking. At home on 4 October they dispatched Roda 2–0, and before that they came away with a 3–1 win at Jong Utrecht's ground. The momentum is real, and it is not a blip.

Across the pitch, Jong Ajax are struggling to find their footing. Six losses from their last ten matches, just three goals scored in their last five, and nine conceded in that same stretch. Their home record over 20 games reads 5 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses, and they have failed to score in 7 of those 20 home fixtures. The 0–0 draw with Roda on 18 September and the 0–2 defeat to Waalwijk on 11 September at their own ground paint a picture of a side that is leaking confidence. Their points per game across the latest ten is 0.8, and their scoring rate of 1.3 per game is a fraction of what Venlo are producing.

Now, I must give the other side its due, for the wise one considers all angles. The head-to-head within the last 12 months shows only one meeting, and that was Jong Ajax winning 1–0 away at VVV Venlo's ground back in March. The older meetings, stretching back to 2024, are historical record and do not carry the weight of current form. Still, that recent away win at least shows Jong Ajax are capable of a tight, disciplined performance against this opponent. And the matchup tables show both sides scoring 1.5 per game in their respective home and away records, with both sides recording over 2.5 goals in more than half of their 20 games. The home and away records show a similar scoring profile for both sides.

But the form gap is wide. Venlo have not drawn in their last ten, and they have not failed to score in any of them. Jong Ajax have drawn or lost in four of their last five, and they have failed to score in two of those. The xG data from August suggests Jong Ajax are creating chances at 1.69 per game but conceding at 2.15 per game, while Venlo's xG against sits at 2.23 per game over four matches. The defensive vulnerability on both sides points toward an open game, but the attacking output favours the visitors.

Key Points:

• VVV Venlo have won 3 of their last 5 and scored 12 goals, with 0 failures to score in their last 10

• Jong Ajax have lost 6 of their last 10 and scored just 3 goals in their last 5

• The only recent head-to-head meeting (March 2026) was a 1–0 Jong Ajax win away

• Both teams' home/away records show 1.5 goals scored per game, but Venlo's recent scoring rate is 2.4 per game

• No displayed price is eligible for a recommendation on this fixture

The available prices could not be used for a recommendation, so I offer no bet on this one. May the force be with you, and may your bankroll survive the weekend.