Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo Prediction

There's something about a team that's been knocking on doors for weeks and finally gets to kick one open. VVV Venlo arrive at Jong Ajax's ground on 9 October carrying the kind of momentum that makes you lean forward in your seat. Three wins from their last five, 12 goals scored, and one clean sheet in that stretch — the little Venlo side have been scoring with real confidence. Their 3–1 away win at Jong Utrecht on 18 September and the 2–0 home victory over Roda on 4 October show a side that is comfortable on both sides of the pitch.

Jong Ajax, by contrast, have been struggling to find their footing. Their last five matches yielded just one win, two draws and two losses, with a goal tally of 3 scored and 9 conceded. At home over 20 games, the record reads 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses — a 1.0 points-per-game return that leaves plenty to be desired. They failed to score in 7 of those 20 home games, and their most recent home outing was a 0–2 defeat to Waalwijk on 11 September. The 0–0 draw with Roda on 18 September, while at least a clean sheet, did little to restore confidence. The 1–6 loss at Jong Utrecht on 14 September, which saw a Jong Ajax red card in the 90th minute, was a particularly bruising blow.

The head-to-head at this venue is thin on recent evidence. The only meeting within the last 12 months was at VVV Venlo's ground in March 2026, which Jong Ajax won 1–0. At Jong Ajax's ground, the two most recent meetings are both from 2025 and earlier — both ended in VVV Venlo victories (2–4 and 0–1). Those are historical results, not current form, but they do paint a picture of a venue where Venlo have found success before.

The counter-argument, though, is worth hearing. VVV Venlo's away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses — solid but not dominant. They lost 2–3 at FC Volendam on 26 September and 2–4 at Helmond Sport on 4 September, both in recent weeks. Their xG figures over four recent games show 5.71 expected goals against 11 actual, which suggests some of that scoring output may have been fortunate rather than sustainable. And Jong Ajax, despite their poor run, did pick up a 1–0 win away at Almere City on 4 September, and their xG against over five games (2.15 per game) suggests their defensive issues may be overstated by the actual results.

The market's view places VVV Venlo as the most likely outcome at 46.51%, with Jong Ajax at 34.72% and the draw at 24.27%. My own reading of the form points toward Venlo as the side more likely to take the points, but the evidence is not overwhelming enough to build a strong conviction around any single outcome.

Key Points:

• VVV Venlo have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 12 goals and never failing to score

• Jong Ajax have won just 1 of their last 5, conceding 9 goals and scoring only 3

• The only recent head-to-head meeting (March 2026) saw Jong Ajax win 1–0 away

• VVV Venlo's away record over 20 games: 6W 5D 9L, 1.15 points per game

• Both teams' BTTS records over 20 games are identical: 12 yes, 8 no

With the available prices unable to be used for a recommendation, this one is a no bet. I'd love to back the little puppies here — Venlo's form is genuinely encouraging — but without a usable price, I'm sitting this one out and keeping my eyes on the next opportunity where the underdog gets fair odds.