Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo Prediction

Right, so we've got Jong Ajax hosting VVV Venlo on 9 October in the Eerste Divisie, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a clear shape to it.

VVV Venlo are the ones to watch here, and I mean that in the best sense. They've won three of their last five, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 9. That 3–1 away win at Jong Utrecht on 18 September and the 2–0 home win over Roda on 4 October show they've got the legs and the finishing touch. Over their last 10 games across all grounds, they've picked up 6 wins from 10, averaging 2.5 goals a game and conceding 1.7. They've scored in every single one of those 10 matches, which tells you they've got a front end that's clicking. Their away record over 20 games sits at 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses, with 1.15 points per game, and they've failed to score in only 4 of those 20 trips. That's a side that travels well and doesn't shy away from putting the ball in the back of the net.

Now, Jong Ajax are having a rough patch. Their last five is 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, and the losses have been ugly. They were thumped 6–1 at Jong Utrecht on 14 September and lost 0–2 at home to Waalwijk on 11 September. Their home record over 20 games is 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses, which is a poor return for a side playing in front of their own crowd. Over their last 10 games, they've conceded 2.5 per game and scored just 1.3. They've failed to score in 3 of those 10, and their current run is a 0–0 draw. The 1–0 win at Almere City on 4 September was the only bright spot, and that was a week before the Waalwijk defeat at home.

The head-to-head here is mostly historical. The only meeting within the last 12 months was on 17 March 2026 at VVV Venlo's ground, where Jong Ajax won 1–0. Before that, the older meetings — going back to 2024 — were all won by VVV Venlo, including two at Jong Ajax's ground (2–4 and 0–1). So the recent head-to-head is thin, and the older record is dated. What we do know is that at Jong Ajax's ground, the last two times these two met, VVV Venlo came away with the points. That's not current form, but it's a pattern worth noting.

The counter-argument for Jong Ajax is that they did win that one recent meeting, and their home record, while poor, does include 5 wins from 20. They've also kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 5, and the 0–0 draw with Roda on 18 September showed they can park the bus. Plus, 12 of their last 20 home games went over 2.5 goals — so even if Venlo are the in-form side, this could be a goal-fest rather than a tight affair.

Key Points:

• VVV Venlo have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 9, and have scored in all of their last 10 games.

• Jong Ajax's home record over 20 games is 5W 5D 10L, with 1.9 goals conceded per game.

• The only recent head-to-head meeting (March 2026) was a 1–0 Jong Ajax win away; older meetings at this venue were both VVV Venlo wins.

• VVV Venlo's away record over 20 games: 6W 5D 9L, 1.5 scored per game, 1.75 conceded per game.

• Over 2.5 goals has hit in 12 of Jong Ajax's last 20 home games and 13 of VVV Venlo's last 20 away games.

The available prices could not be used for a recommendation, so this one's a No Bet. The football points to VVV Venlo as the likelier winners, but without a usable price on the table, I'm keeping my money in my pocket and just enjoying the match from the sofa.