Jong AZ vs Den Bosch Prediction

Jong AZ are coming into this one with some serious momentum, and honestly the numbers back it up. Three wins in their last five games, 15 goals scored, and that 4-1 hammering of FC Volendam three weeks ago at their own ground was a proper statement. They've scored in every one of those last five matches and both teams have found the net in all five — this is a side that's got the fire going. The 6-3 away win at Dordrecht four weeks ago showed they can do it on the road too, so this isn't just a home-only trick.

Now look at Den Bosch. One win, one draw, three losses in their last five. Four goals scored, eight conceded. They failed to score in two of those games — the 0-1 at De Graafschap and the 0-2 at FC Volendam. Their away record over the last 20 games is 3 wins, 4 draws, 13 losses, and they've only managed a clean sheet once in that stretch. This is a team that's struggling to find their feet on the road, and the 1-1 draw at home against Dordrecht six days ago was about as positive as it gets for them.

The head-to-head here is a bit thin on the recent stuff — just one meeting in the last 12 months, a 2-2 draw at Jong AZ's ground back in February. The older meetings go back years, so I'm not going to lean on those. What matters is the current form, and that tells me Jong AZ are the ones in control.

The matchup table paints a clear picture: Jong AZ at home average 1.6 goals per game and concede 1.55, while Den Bosch away average 1.25 scored and concede 2.25. Points per game tells the same story — 1.15 for the hosts versus 0.65 for the visitors. In their latest 10 games, Jong AZ are scoring 2.9 per game compared to Den Bosch's 1.5. That's a gap you can't ignore.

The counter-argument? Den Bosch did get a point out of their last game, and they've got that 2-2 draw in the recent head-to-head. Also, Jong AZ's home record over 20 games isn't exactly strong — 7 wins, 2 draws, 11 losses. And they haven't kept a clean sheet in their last five. So there's a chance Den Bosch nick a goal and this goes to a draw or a narrow away win. The market has the draw at 4.37 and Den Bosch at 3.3, which tells you the bookies see a slim path for the visitors.

But the weight of evidence points one way. Jong AZ are scoring, they're winning, and Den Bosch are leaking goals on the road. I rate the home win at around 55%, which sits just above the market's 52.36% view. That's a small edge, but it's backed by the form, the venue record and the scoring numbers.

Key Points:

• Jong AZ: 3W 1D 1L in last 5, 15 goals scored, both teams scored in all 5

• Den Bosch: 1W 1D 3L in last 5, 4 goals scored, 8 conceded

• Den Bosch away record: 3W 4D 13L in 20 games, 0.65 points per game

• Recent H2H: 2-2 draw at Jong AZ's ground (February 2026)

• Matchup table: Jong AZ home 1.15 ppg vs Den Bosch away 0.65 ppg

My pick: home win.