Jong AZ vs Den Bosch Prediction

Jong AZ host Den Bosch at their ground on 9 October in the Eerste Divisie, and the recent form gap between the two sides is hard to ignore. Jong AZ have won three of their last five matches, scoring 15 goals at a rate of three per game, while Den Bosch have managed just one win, one draw and three losses in the same stretch, scoring only four. The away record tells the story most clearly. Over the last 20 away games, Den Bosch have won just 3, drawn 4 and lost 13, conceding 2.25 per game. In their last three away fixtures they lost all three — 0–1 to De Graafschap on 27 September, 0–2 to FC Volendam on 13 September and 1–3 to Jong PSV U21 on 7 September — scoring a single goal across the three. Jong AZ, by contrast, have won both of their last two home games, 4–1 over FC Volendam on 18 September and 2–1 against Jong Utrecht on 31 August, and their home record over 20 games shows 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses with 1.6 goals scored per game.

The counter-argument is straightforward. Jong AZ's home record of 7 wins from 20 games means they lose more than half their home fixtures, and the most recent meeting between these two sides, on 23 February at this venue, ended 2–2. The older head-to-head record stretches back to 2017 and includes a 6–0 defeat for Jong AZ at Den Bosch's ground in 2024, but those results carry no weight in assessing current form. Den Bosch did pick up a point in their most recent outing, a 1–1 home draw with Dordrecht on 3 October, and their away record does include 4 draws that kept them in games. The market prices a Jong AZ win at 1.91, implying a 52.36% chance, which reflects the uncertainty in a home record that sees 11 losses from 20 games.

Key Points:

• Jong AZ have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 15 goals (3 per game), while Den Bosch have won just 1 of 5, scoring 4.

• Den Bosch have lost all 3 of their last 3 away games, scoring only 1 goal in total.

• The recent head-to-head at this venue on 23 February ended 2–2.

• Jong AZ's home record over 20 games is 7W 2D 11L, with 1.6 goals scored per game.

• Den Bosch's away record over 20 games is 3W 4D 13L, with 2.25 goals conceded per game.

The evidence points firmly toward Jong AZ, but the home record of 7 wins from 20 games and the 2–2 draw in the most recent meeting keep this from being a certainty. When the numbers don't give me the confidence I need, I pass. No bet.