Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC Prediction

Right then, let's get stuck into this Friday night Eerste Divisie clash. On the face of it, you've got fourth-placed Jong PSV hosting eighth-placed Almere City. The table says one thing, but the recent form book is shouting something completely different, and it's shouting 'GOALS!'.

Jong PSV's lads might be sitting pretty in fourth, but their last ten games tell the real story: three wins, two draws, and five losses. They're shipping goals for fun, conceding 24 in that run. Not a single clean sheet in ten! At home, they're scoring two a game, which is decent, but they're also letting in two a game. Just last week they got walloped 4-0 by FC Eindhoven, and before that, they were involved in a 3-3 thriller with Jong Utrecht. They're a proper 'you score, we'll score' kind of side at the moment.

Now, Almere City are the form team coming into this. Six wins from their last ten, and they're banging them in too – 19 goals in that spell. They've kept four clean sheets as well, which shows they can defend when they need to. They're just as happy on the road, winning three of their last five away, including a nice 2-1 win at FC OSS. Their only recent blip was a 5-2 pasting at Den Bosch, which proves they're not invincible.

The history between these two is my favourite bit. They love a goal glut. In the last eight meetings, both teams have scored in seven of them, and six of those games had over 2.5 goals. The last time they met, back in September, it finished 4-2. At Jong PSV's gaff, the home side's record is actually poor – just one win in three against Almere. So, the visitors won't be scared.

When you look at the numbers, it's a no-brainer. Jong PSV's games are averaging four goals a game recently. Almere's are averaging over three. Put 'em together on a cold December night, and what do you get? Chances. Lots of 'em. The bookies have clocked this too, with Over 2.5 Goals priced at a skinny 1.30. Sometimes the obvious bet is the right one.

Key Points:

Jong PSV are in patchy form (3W, 2D, 5L last 10) and have conceded 24 goals in that run.

Almere City are flying with 6 wins from their last 10 games.

Jong PSV have not kept a clean sheet in their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head history is a goal-fest: BTTS in 7 of last 8, Over 2.5 in 6 of last 8.

• Recent goal environments for both teams are very high-scoring.

To put it simply, both teams can score, both teams are likely to concede, and history says they usually do when they meet. The value might not be in the price, but the probability is sky-high. I'm backing the net to bulge at least three times.