Jong Utrecht welcome Roda to their ground on 19 October for a Eerste Divisie clash, and I have to be honest — the little dog here is Jong Utrecht, and the numbers aren't smiling at them.
Roda arrive in genuinely good shape. Over their last 10 matches across all venues, they've won 4, drawn 4 and lost just 2, racking up 1.6 points per game. Their away record over 20 games is 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses, with 1.4 goals conceded per game. In their last five matches, Roda have kept clean sheets in three of five and have gone under 2.5 goals in all five. That's a team that comes to your ground, keeps things tight, and picks you apart.
The head-to-head at this venue doesn't help Jong Utrecht either. On 22 December 2025, Roda won 3–1 here. Across the full 17-meeting history, Roda have won 11, drawn 2 and lost 4, with Jong Utrecht managing just 1.12 goals per game against them.
Now, here's where I'd normally get excited for the underdog. Jong Utrecht's home games do tend to be open — 16 of their last 20 home fixtures went over 2.5 goals, and 15 of 20 saw both teams score. They thumped Jong Ajax 6–1 at home on 14 September (with a late red card for the visitors) and beat NAC Breda 3–2 on the road on 11 September. There's a spark there.
But the last two games have been a cold shower. Jong Utrecht lost 1–2 at De Graafschap on 9 October and 1–3 at home to VVV Venlo on 18 September. In those two matches they scored 2 and conceded 5. Their last 10 across all venues is 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses, with 2.3 goals conceded per game. Their xG over six recent games shows 1.17 created per game but 1.87 faced per game — that's a tough gap to close when you're the one at home.
Roda, meanwhile, have conceded just 0.8 goals per game over their last 10 and 1.4 per game over 20 away games. Their xG against sits at 1.42 per game over six recent matches. The low-scoring nature of Roda's recent output — 5 of 5 under 2.5 in their last five, 8 of 10 under in their last ten — paints a picture of a disciplined, compact visit.
I love a good underdog story, but I can't find the value here. The favourite is Roda, and I simply don't back favourites — that's the rule. The underdog prices on a Jong Utrecht win or a draw don't offer enough edge given the form gap and the head-to-head. I'd rather sit this one out and save my pennies for a pup that's actually got a leg to stand on.
Key Points:
- Roda have won 4 of their last 10 and drawn 4, with 3 clean sheets in their last 5
- Jong Utrecht have lost their last 2, conceding 5 goals in those games
- The recent head-to-head at this venue ended 1–3 to Roda (22 December 2025)
- Roda's last 5 matches have all been under 2.5 goals
- Jong Utrecht's home record over 20 games: 7W 4D 9L
No Bet.
NetherlandsEerste Divisie
