Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Kasımpaşa at home against Samsunspor, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.
Samsunspor are in a bit of a mess. Five games, five losses. They've chipped in just one goal across that stretch and conceded twelve. Four of those five, they didn't even manage to get on the scoresheet. The 0-3 to Trabzonspor eight days ago was the latest in a run that's gone on since 30 August, when they fell to Fenerbahçe at home. In between, they've lost to Kocaelispor 0-1 on the road, Çorum FK 1-5 at their own ground, and Erzurumspor FK 0-1 away. That's not a team that's struggling a little – that's a team that's gone flat.
Now look at Kasımpaşa at home. Over their last 20 games at this ground, they've won 10, drawn 8 and lost just 2. They're averaging 1.9 points per game, scoring 1.25 a game and conceding just 0.6. Twelve of those 20, they've kept a clean sheet. That's a solid home record, and it's the kind of record that makes you feel comfortable when a side like Samsunspor – who've scored 0.2 goals per game in their last five – turn up.
The head-to-head at this venue in the last 12 months tells a similar story. Kasımpaşa beat Samsunspor 3-0 in August (a friendly, mind you), and the other meeting this year at this ground went 0-1 to Samsunspor back in January. So it's split, but the more recent one went Kasımpaşa's way, and it was a comfortable one.
The counter-argument? Kasımpaşa's own recent form isn't sparkling. In their last five, they've won one, drawn three and lost one. The 0-0 with Konyaspor at home on 18 September and the 1-1 at Başakşehir on 30 August show they can go quiet. And that 3-1 loss to Galatasaray on 9 October, while understandable against a top side, leaves a bit of a sting. Samsunspor's away record over 20 games isn't a disaster either – 9 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses – so there's a historical argument that they can still pick up points on the road.
But here's the thing: Samsunspor's current form is the most damning evidence in this fixture. Five straight losses, one goal, twelve conceded. That's not a blip; that's a pattern. And Kasımpaşa at home, with that 10-8-2 record and a defence that's kept clean sheets in 12 of their last 20 home games, are the side to back.
Key Points:
- Samsunspor have lost their last five, scoring just 1 goal and conceding 12
- Kasımpaşa's home record: 10W 8D 2L in 20 games, 0.6 goals conceded per game
- H2H at this ground in the last 12 months: Kasımpaşa won 3-0 in August
- Kasımpaşa's recent form is mixed (1W 3D 1L)
- Samsunspor failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches
I'm going with the Kasımpaşa home win at 2.65.