Preview
Mr CertaintyKasımpaşa host Samsunspor on 18 October in the Süper Lig, and the most compelling story in this fixture is Samsunspor's inability to find the back of the net. The visitors have scored just one goal in their last five matches and failed to score in four of those five, a drought that stretches across both home and away fixtures. Their most recent outing at home saw them concede three to Trabzonspor without replying, and their two most recent away trips ended in 0–1 defeats against Erzurumspor FK and Kocaelispor. Samsunspor's current run is five consecutive losses, with 1 goal scored and 12 conceded across that stretch.
Kasımpaşa's home record provides a solid backdrop. Across 20 home games, they have won 10, drawn 8 and lost just 2, scoring 1.25 goals per game while conceding only 0.6. Twelve of those 20 home matches ended in a clean sheet. Their last two home games produced a 0–0 draw with Konyaspor and a 2–2 draw with Amed, showing they can be stubborn at home but also that their defence holds firm. Their recent form across all venues is mixed — one win, three draws and one loss in the last five — but the home numbers tell a steadier story.
The head-to-head at this venue reinforces the pattern. In the two recent meetings at Kasımpaşa's ground, neither game saw both teams score: Kasımpaşa won 3–0 in August and Samsunspor won 1–0 in January. Samsunspor's away record over 20 games shows 6 of those 20 ended without them finding the net, and their last 10 matches across all venues saw them fail to score in 5 of 10.
The counter-argument is that Kasımpaşa's recent form is not dominant. Their last five matches produced one win, three draws and one loss, and they conceded 7 goals in that span. The 3–1 defeat at Galatasaray on 9 October is the most recent result, and it reminds us that Kasımpaşa are not impervious. Samsunspor's xG figures over their last seven matches with data show 1.13 per game created, suggesting they generate chances even when the scoreboard does not reflect it. However, actual output has been 6 goals in those 7 games, well below the xG figure, and the last five games tell the real story: 1 goal from 5 matches.
The market prices both teams to score at 1.78, implying a 56.18% chance. My reading of the evidence points the other way. Samsunspor's scoring output of 0.2 goals per game in the last five, combined with Kasımpaşa's 12 clean sheets in 20 home games and the two recent meetings at this ground both ending without both sides scoring, makes a strong case that at least one team will finish without a goal. I rate the chance of at least one team not to score at roughly 68%, which sits comfortably above the market's 50% implied probability for the No side.
Key Points:
- Samsunspor have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 matches and failed to score in 4 of those 5
- Kasımpaşa have kept 12 clean sheets in their last 20 home games
- Both recent meetings at Kasımpaşa's ground ended without both teams scoring (3–0 and 0–1)
- Kasımpaşa's home record: 10W 8D 2L in 20 games, 0.6 goals conceded per game
- Samsunspor's last 5 matches: 0W 0D 5L, 1 goal scored, 12 conceded
Verdict: Both teams not to score.