Preview
Value VinnyKolding IF host Vendsyssel FF on 16 October in the 1. Division, and the numbers point to a home side with the edge. Vendsyssel FF have won just 0 of their last 5 matches, picking up 0.4 points per game and scoring only 4 goals across that stretch while conceding 9. Their current run is two consecutive losses, in which they scored 1 and conceded 4. That is a team struggling to find a rhythm, and it shows clearly in the goal tally.
At home, Kolding IF have a record of 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses across 20 games, scoring 1.4 per game and conceding 1.3. That is a solid foundation for a home fixture. The head-to-head at this venue adds another layer: the only meeting within the last 12 months was on 8 July 2026, a 1–0 Kolding IF win. The older meetings at this ground (2–0 and 0–0) are historical, but the recent result at this specific venue is a clean sheet for the hosts.
The counter-argument is that Vendsyssel FF's away record over 20 games looks respectable: 10 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses, 1.8 points per game, and 1.9 goals scored per game. That is actually better than Kolding IF's home figures in wins and points per game. However, those 20 away games span from 14 February to 2 October 2026, and the current form tells a very different story. The last 5 matches show 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses. The 20-game away record is diluted by earlier results; the last five are what matters on matchday.
Kolding IF's own form is not sparkling either — 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss in the last 5, and they drew 1–1 at Hobro on 10 October with a red card in the 77th minute. But drawing is not losing, and the home record still holds up. Vendsyssel FF's away defence over 20 games (1.0 conceded per game, 9 clean sheets) is a factor, but the current run of two losses with 4 goals conceded suggests that defensive solidity has slipped.
Key Points:
- Vendsyssel FF are winless in their last 5 matches (0W 2D 3L) and have lost their last 2, scoring just 1 goal in those two.
- Kolding IF's home record: 8W 5D 7L in 20 games, 1.4 goals scored per game, 1.3 conceded per game.
- The only recent head-to-head at Kolding IF's ground (8 July 2026) was a 1–0 home win.
- Vendsyssel FF's 20-game away record (10W 6D 4L) is strong but is heavily diluted by the current 0-win run.
- Kolding IF's last 5 matches include 4 BTTS yes, suggesting open games, but the home defence (1.3 conceded per game) is the key factor.
The market prices Kolding IF at 2.12, implying a 47.17% chance. My read of the form, the home record and the recent head-to-head puts the home win closer to 53%, which is above the market's view. That gap is the value I'm looking for. Kolding IF home win.