Preview
PajimonAalesund are walking into this one with the kind of confidence you get after a good braai and a cold one, while Kristiansund BK look like they've been drinking too much of that cheap beer. The visitors have won two of their last five, including a 2–1 away win at Molde on 19 September, and they've scored in every one of those five matches. Their xG for across five recent games sits at 1.56 per game, which tells you they're creating something worth watching.
Kristiansund BK, on the other hand, have lost their last three. Two goals scored, nine conceded. That 1–8 thrashing at Viking on 13 September and the 3–1 defeat at Bodo/Glimt on 10 October paint a picture of a side that's leaking goals like a cracked pot. Their xG for is 0.78 per game, which is barely enough to fill a beer glass, and their xG against is 1.83 per game. They're getting punished, bro.
The head-to-head backs the visitors up. In the last three meetings within the past year, Aalesund won two and drew one. The most recent one, on 27 June at Kristiansund BK's ground, ended 0–3. That's the only meeting at this venue in the recent window, so it's a small sample, but it's a telling one. At Aalesund's ground, they've won one and drawn one in two meetings.
Now, the counter-argument. Kristiansund BK's home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses, with 1.45 points per game and 1.3 goals scored per game. That's not nothing. They've kept 5 clean sheets in those 20 home games and only failed to score in 4. Aalesund's away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses, 1.3 points per game. So on the longer stretch, the home side has a slight edge in points per game. And with only one recent meeting at this venue, you can't build a whole argument from a single 0–3.
But the current form gap is hard to ignore. Aalesund are scoring 1.8 per game and conceding 1.8 per game in their last five. Kristiansund BK are scoring 1 per game and conceding 3.6 per game. The xG numbers back it up: Aalesund's 1.56 per game creation compared to Kristiansund BK's 0.78 per game is a big gap.
Key Points:
- Aalesund won the last meeting at this venue 0–3 and 2 of the 3 recent head-to-head meetings
- Kristiansund BK lost their last 3, scoring just 2 and conceding 9
- Aalesund's xG for (1.56 per game) is well ahead of Kristiansund BK's (0.78 per game)
- Kristiansund BK's 20-game home record (8W 5D 7L) offers some comfort but current form tells a different story
- Both teams' last 5 games have produced over 2.5 goals in 4–5 of those matches
I'm going with the Aalesund away win.