Preview
Value VinnyKristiansund BK have made a mess of their last three games, and the numbers don't lie. They've scored just two goals and conceded nine across those three defeats — a 1–3 loss to Rosenborg at home on 19 September, a 0–3 thrashing at Molde on 4 October, and a 1–3 loss at Bodo/Glimt on 10 October. Their xG for in the last five games with data sits at 0.78 per game, which tells you they're not even creating the chances to win. Zero clean sheets in five. One win in five, and that was against Brattvåg in the cup.
Aalesund, by contrast, arrive with their heads up. They've won two of their last five, including a 2–1 victory at Molde on 19 September, and they've scored in every one of their last ten games. Their goals per game in that stretch is 3.1, and their xG for sits at 1.56 per game, compared to Kristiansund's 0.78. They lost 2–4 to Sarpsborg at home on 11 October, sure, but that's one bad night. Their current run is just one loss.
The head-to-head at this ground is the most telling piece of evidence. On 27 June, Aalesund walked into Kristiansund's ground and won 3–0. That's the only recent meeting at this venue. The other two recent meetings — a 1–1 at Aalesund's ground in April and a 1–0 Aalesund win in January — saw Kristiansund score just once across both. In three recent meetings, Kristiansund have scored once and lost twice.
The counter-argument is Kristiansund's home record over 20 games: 8 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses, with 1.45 points per game and a conceded rate of 1.45 per game. That's not a terrible home record in the aggregate. And Aalesund's away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses — not great. So if you strip away the last three weeks, the wider home and away records suggest this is a closer contest than the current form implies.
But I don't bet on the 20-game aggregate when the last three weeks are telling you the truth. Kristiansund are conceding 3.6 goals per game in their last five. Aalesund are scoring 3.1 per game in their last ten and haven't failed to score in any of them. The market prices Aalesund at 2.68, implying a 37.31% chance. My read, based on the form, the head-to-head at this ground, and the goal-scoring disparity, is closer to 45%. That's value.
Key Points:
- Kristiansund BK have lost their last three games, scoring 2 and conceding 9
- Aalesund have won 2 of their last 5 and scored in all of their last 10 games
- The only recent meeting at Kristiansund's ground ended 0–3 to Aalesund
- Aalesund's away scoring rate is 2.3 per game over 20 games; Kristiansund's home scoring rate is 1.3 per game
- Market implies 37.31% for Aalesund; the evidence supports a higher probability
Verdict: I'm backing the Aalesund away win at 2.68.