Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Kryvbas KR hosting LNZ Cherkasy on 18 October, and if I'm being honest, the visitors look like the ones with the legs for this one.
LNZ Cherkasy have been solid on the road. Over their last 20 away games, they've won 10, drawn 6 and lost just 4, picking up 1.8 points per game. More importantly, they've kept clean sheets in 12 of those 20 outings and conceded only 0.65 a game. That's a tight backline. And they're not just parking the bus — they've scored 1.3 per game away, which is enough to get you over the line. Their last five matches tell the same story: two wins, two draws, one loss, at 1.6 points per game. They came in with a 2-1 win over Kudrivka just seven days before kickoff, and they also held Dynamo Kyiv to a 0-0 earlier in the stretch. The form is there.
Now look at Kryvbas KR. They're on a two-game losing run, scoring zero in both — a 0-3 thrashing at Shakhtar Donetsk two weeks ago and a 0-1 defeat at Polessya before that. In their last five, they've managed one win, one draw and three losses, at 0.8 points per game. They've failed to score in three of those five. And the only recent meeting between these two at Kryvbas KR's ground — back in April — ended 0-3 to LNZ Cherkasy. That's not a coincidence; it's a pattern.
The counter-argument, if you want one, is that Kryvbas KR do score at home. Over 20 home games, they've averaged 1.95 a game and only failed to score in 2 of those 20. They've also had 15 of those 20 go over 2.5 goals. But those 20 games stretch back 13 months, and the recent form — three losses in five, all three without a goal — tells a very different story. The old numbers don't match what's happening right now.
Key Points:
- LNZ Cherkasy have won 10 of their last 20 away games, keeping 12 clean sheets and conceding 0.65 per game
- Kryvbas KR are on a two-game losing run, scoring zero in both, and lost 0-3 to LNZ Cherkasy at this venue in April
- LNZ Cherkasy's last five: 2W 2D 1L at 1.6 ppg; Kryvbas KR's last five: 1W 1D 3L at 0.8 ppg
- LNZ Cherkasy's away defence (0.65 conceded per game) is far tighter than Kryvbas KR's home defence (1.7 conceded per game)
My pick: LNZ Cherkasy away win at 1.67. The bookies have them at about 60%, but the form, the away record and that 3-0 at this ground all point to the visitors getting the job done. I'd rate their chance a touch higher than the market does, and that's where the value sits.