Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got KVC Westerlo hosting Antwerp on 11 October, and if you've been keeping an eye on the form book, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.
Westerlo have been absolutely flying. Three wins in a row — 2-0 at St. Truiden, 4-2 against Standard Liege at home, and a 4-0 thrashing of KV Mechelen away. Ten goals scored, just two conceded in those three. They're putting the ball in the net like they've got a machine gun up the back and keeping things tidy at the other end. In their last five, they've won three, drawn one, and lost one, and that 0-4 defeat at Lommel back in August feels like a distant memory now.
Antwerp, on the other hand, have been having a bit of a nightmare. Four losses in a row. They went home to Union St. Gilloise and lost 0-2 with a red card to boot, then got beaten 1-3 at Club Brugge, lost 0-1 at Standard Liege, and were demolished 1-4 at home by St. Truiden. In those four games, they've scored two and conceded ten. That's not a team that's finding its feet — that's a team that's struggling to find the foot.
Now, the head-to-head does give Antwerp a bit of a nod. In the last three meetings within the past year, Antwerp won two — 2-0 at their ground in May and 4-2 at Westerlo's place in April. But the other one, back in February, was a 0-2 win for Westerlo away at Antwerp. And that 2-4 loss at Westerlo's ground in April came with a red card in the 10th minute, which changes the dynamic a bit.
The venue records over 20 games each tell a mixed story. Westerlo at home: 5 wins, 6 draws, 9 losses, scoring 1.35 a game but conceding 1.7. Antwerp away: 7 wins, 2 draws, 11 losses, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.1. Antwerp's away record is a touch better on points per game, but Westerlo's scoring output at home is the edge here.
The counter-argument is that Antwerp have won two of the last three recent meetings and their away record over 20 games is respectable. But when you look at the last 10 games across all venues, Westerlo have 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses with 1.8 goals a game, while Antwerp have 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses with 1.3. The form gap is hard to ignore.
Key Points:
- KVC Westerlo are on a three-game winning run, scoring 10 and conceding just 2
- Antwerp have lost their last four, scoring 2 and conceding 10
- In the last three recent meetings, Antwerp won two, with Westerlo taking the February meeting
- Westerlo's home record over 20 games: 5W 6D 9L, scoring 1.35 per game
- Antwerp's away record over 20 games: 7W 2D 11L, conceding 1.1 per game
The market has them at 2.14, which puts Westerlo at about 47% in the bookmaker's eyes. But when you look at the form — Westerlo scoring 10 in three games while Antwerp are scoring 2 in four — I'd rate Westerlo's chance closer to 55%. That's a decent chunk of value at 2.14.
My tip: KVC Westerlo home win at 2.14.