Preview
Umery UnderdogKVC Westerlo arrive at their ground on 11 October in strong form, having won their last three matches and scored 10 goals while conceding just 2 in that stretch. Their last five matches have produced 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 12 goals scored and 8 conceded. At home over 20 games, they have recorded 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses, scoring 1.35 per game but conceding 1.7 per game. The recent output has been impressive — 4–2 against Standard Liege at home, 4–0 at KV Mechelen, and 2–0 at St. Truiden — and the team has failed to score in only 1 of those last 5 matches.
Antwerp, by contrast, are in a genuine slump. Their last four matches have all ended in defeat, with just 2 goals scored and 10 conceded. Over their last five games they have managed 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses. Their away record over 20 games shows 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses, but the more telling figure is that in 14 of those 20 away fixtures, at least one team failed to score. Antwerp themselves have gone without a goal in 9 of those 20 away games. Their last two away matches produced just 1 goal between them: 0–1 at Standard Liege and 1–3 at Club Brugge.
The head-to-head over the last 12 months tells a mixed story. Antwerp won 2–0 at their own ground in May and 4–2 at KVC Westerlo's ground in April, but KVC Westerlo replied with a 2–0 away win in February. At this venue specifically, the only recent meeting was that 2–4 Antwerp victory in April. The older meetings — a 2–0 KVC Westerlo home win in August 2025 and a 3–2 Antwerp home win in January 2025 — are historical and do not carry much weight for current form.
The strongest counter-argument to a scoreless outcome is KVC Westerlo's scoring form. They have netted 2.4 per game in their last five matches and have failed to score in only 1 of those 5. At home, they have gone without a goal in just 6 of 20 games. A team scoring at that rate is unlikely to sit down with nothing on the board.
However, Antwerp's away scoring record is the key underdog angle. In 14 of their last 20 away games, at least one side kept a clean sheet, and Antwerp have failed to score in 9 of those 20. When a team is conceding 2.8 per game and scoring 1.2, the likelihood of them finding a goal in a hostile away environment drops significantly. The market prices both teams to score at 1.45, implying a 68.97% chance, but the evidence from Antwerp's away record and recent scoring struggles suggests that figure may be a touch generous.
Key Points:
- KVC Westerlo won their last 3 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 2
- Antwerp lost their last 4, scoring 2 and conceding 10
- Antwerp's away record: 14 of 20 games saw at least one team fail to score
- H2H in the last 12 months: Antwerp won 2, KVC Westerlo won 1
- KVC Westerlo have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches, making a blank sheet less likely
I'm backing both teams not to score at 2.7 — the underdog position in a market where the favourite is both teams to score, and one where Antwerp's away scoring struggles and recent form give the little dog a genuine edge.