Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Latina hosting Atalanta II on 14 October in Serie C Girone B, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got the smell of a tight, low-scoring scrap about it.
Let's start with what the venue records tell us. Latina at home over their last 20 games have won 8, drawn 7 and lost 5, picking up 1.55 points per game. More importantly for this tip, they've kept it under 2.5 goals in 16 of those 20 home fixtures. That's a massive 80% of their home games finishing with two or fewer goals. They average just 1.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded at home, and they've had 8 clean sheets in that stretch.
Now look at Atalanta II on the road. Over their last 20 away games, they've won 5, drawn 6 and lost 9 — 1.05 points per game. They've conceded 1.55 per game away and only managed 3 clean sheets in 20 trips. And crucially, 13 of those 20 away games finished under 2.5 goals.
So when you stack those two records up, the picture is pretty clear: both sides' venue numbers point to a low-scoring affair.
The head-to-head is thin — just two meetings between these two, and Latina won both. The most recent was back in January at Atalanta II's ground, where Latina edged it 2-1. The older one was at Latina's ground, a 1-0 win. With only two meetings and the most recent being nine months ago, the H2H is dated, so we lean more on current form and venue records.
Current form, though, is a bit of a mixed bag. Latina have gone winless in their last five — three draws and two losses — and their last two games were 1-1 draws. Atalanta II have won two of their last five but their last two have been losses, conceding four goals in those two. Both teams are without a clean sheet in their last five games, which keeps the door open for goals, but the overall scoring trend still leans low.
The counter-argument is that Atalanta II are the stronger side overall and their away record, while poor, does show 7 of 20 games going over 2.5. Their recent form has seen 3 of 5 games go over 2.5 as well. And both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, which could mean both find the net.
But the weight of the evidence — 16 of 20 home games under 2.5 for Latina, 13 of 20 away games under 2.5 for Atalanta II, and 4 of 5 recent games under 2.5 for the hosts — tells me this is more likely to be a 1-0, 1-1 or 0-0 than a goal-fest.
Key Points:
- Latina have kept 16 of their last 20 home games under 2.5 goals
- Atalanta II have finished 13 of their last 20 away games under 2.5 goals
- The head-to-head is limited (two meetings, both won by Latina) and the most recent was nine months ago
- Both teams are without a clean sheet in their last five games
- Atalanta II's last two matches have been losses, conceding four goals
My pick: under 2.5 goals at 1.95.