Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Latina hosting Vis Pesaro on 18 October in Serie C Girone B, and if you've got a spare fiver, this one's got a story worth a quick read.
Let's start with the numbers that actually matter. Over the last 20 home games, Latina have won 9, drawn 6 and lost 5, picking up 1.65 points per game. They score 1.1 a game and concede just 0.7, keeping a clean sheet in 8 of those 20. Now look at Vis Pesaro on the road: 4 wins, 5 draws, 11 losses in 20 away games. That's 0.85 points per game, they score 0.85 and concede 1.85. The gap between those two sets of numbers is the whole match in a nutshell. Latina at home are a side that win, draw or lose in roughly equal-ish measure, but the wins outnumber the losses by a mile. Vis Pesaro away are a side that lose more often than they win, and by a wide margin.
And the recent form tells the same tale. Vis Pesaro have lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–4 home thrashing by Reggiana and a 2–3 home defeat to Grosseto just 8 days ago. They've only managed a win against Guidonia Montecelio in that stretch. Meanwhile, Latina came in with a 2–0 home win over Atalanta II four days before kickoff, and while they've drawn three of their last five, they've only lost once in that run. The current run says they've won their last game, and that's the momentum heading into this one.
Now, the counter-argument, because I'm not a fool. Vis Pesaro have scored in all five of their last games — every single one — and their away record shows both teams scoring in 10 of 20. So they're not a side that sits back and goes to zero. And Latina have drawn three of their last five, which means they're not exactly rolling over opposition. If Vis Pesaro nick a goal, this could go the other way. Also, there's no head-to-head on record between these two, so we're flying a bit blind on how they actually match up on the day. There's simply nothing on the head-to-head to point to.
But here's the thing: the defensive numbers are the real tell. Latina at home concede 0.7 per game. Vis Pesaro away concede 1.85 per game. That's a massive difference in what you're asking of your back four. And Vis Pesaro's recent form — 2.6 conceded per game over the last five — suggests that defence is in a bit of a mess. When you pair a side that keeps clean sheets 40% of the time at home against a side that's been leaking goals like a sieve on the road, the home side's got the edge.
Key Points:
- Latina's home record: 9W 6D 5L in 20 games, 1.65 PPG, 0.7 conceded per game
- Vis Pesaro's away record: 4W 5D 11L in 20 games, 0.85 PPG, 1.85 conceded per game
- Vis Pesaro have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, including two home defeats
- No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides
- Vis Pesaro have scored in all 5 of their recent games, but have conceded 13 in that stretch
The numbers, the form, and the venue all point the same way. I'm going with the Latina home win at 1.79.