Preview
The Big O here, and I'm telling you — this one's got legs. Auxerre have been leaking goals like a sieve over the last few weeks, and that's music to my ears.
Let's start with what's got me excited. Auxerre's last five matches have produced over 2.5 goals in four of them. They lost 1-4 at Rennes on 11 October, beat Clermont 4-3 in a friendly on 2 October, won 2-1 at home to Brest on 20 September, beat Nice 1-0 on 12 September, and lost 1-3 at Lyon on 4 September. That's 4 out of 5 games with three or more goals. Their xG against over the last three games with data sits at 2.88 per game, and they've actually conceded 12 goals in those three. That defence is a sieve, and I love a sieve.
Le Havre, for their part, have been involved in 3 of their last 5 games that went over 2.5. The 6-1 friendly win over Boulogne on 2 October was a statement, and the 2-3 loss at Toulouse on 19 September and 1-2 loss to Brest on 5 September both went over 2.5. Their xG against is 1.48 per game, which means opponents are creating chances at a reasonable rate. Le Havre's home record over 20 games has 8 of 20 going over 2.5, and their away opponent Auxerre has 9 of 20 away games over 2.5. When you stack those two records together, the goal count starts to add up.
The head-to-head at this venue is thin — just one meeting within the last 12 months, a 1-1 draw on 5 April 2026. But the older meetings at Le Havre's ground (3-1 in 2024, 1-2 in 2022) and at Auxerre's ground (1-2 in 2025) all had three or more goals. The full 24-game head-to-head has 10 of 24 going over 2.5, and the most recent meeting at this venue, while a draw, still had both teams on the scoreline.
Now, the counter-argument, because I'm not a fool. Le Havre's home record over 20 games is 12 under 2.5 and 8 over. Their last 10 games across all venues have 6 under 2.5. Their xG for is a modest 0.87 per game, and they've failed to score in 2 of their last 5. The most recent meeting at this ground was a 1-1 draw. Le Havre's home record is 5 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses — that's a lot of draws, and draws tend to keep the scoreline quiet. Le Havre also picked up two red cards in their last five matches, which can chop a game up and kill the flow.
Key Points:
- Auxerre's last 5 games: 4/5 over 2.5, with 2.2 goals conceded per game
- Auxerre's xG against: 2.88 per game over 3 recent matches
- Le Havre's home record: 12/20 under 2.5, 8/20 over
- Le Havre's xG for: 0.87 per game; failed to score in 2/5 recent games
- Recent H2H at this venue: 1-1 draw (5 April 2026)
The balance tips toward goals for me. Auxerre's defence is a genuine concern, their recent form is goal-heavy, and Le Havre's home games have a reasonable over-2.5 base. I'm going with over 2.5 goals.
