Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper gander at this bottom-half battle in Ligue 1. Both Le Havre and Brest are stuck on 9 points, just one place apart in the table - this is exactly the sort of six-pointer that gets the blood pumping come the business end of the season.

Le Havre come into this on the back of a decent 0-1 win away at Auxerre, their only victory in their last 10 games. But let's not get carried away - before that they got absolutely spanked 6-2 by Marseille, which shows what happens when they face a proper side. At home, they've been drawing more than winning lately, with half of their last 4 home games ending level. They do find the net at home though, averaging 1.75 goals per game, but their defence is about as solid as a chocolate teapot, letting in 1.50 per game on their own patch.

Brest have been slightly better in terms of points per game (1.00 vs Le Havre's 0.90), but their recent form ain't exactly setting the world alight either. They just lost 0-3 at home to PSG, which is no disgrace given who they were facing, and before that had a right old barnstormer with Lorient, finishing 3-3. On their travels, they score a respectable 1.50 goals per game but also ship 2.00 - proper end-to-end stuff when they're away from home.

The head-to-head record favours Brest, who've won 5 of the 9 meetings between these sides. Le Havre's home record against Brest is evenly split at 2W-2D-2L, so no real advantage there. The recent encounters have been tight, low-scoring affairs mostly.

Now, here's where it gets interesting for us punters. Both sides have been shipping goals for fun lately - both conceding 1.8 goals per game overall. And here's the stat that really catches the eye: both teams have found the net in 60% of their recent matches. When you've got two leaky defences going head-to-head in a relegation battle, you're usually in for goals at both ends.

The bookies have Le Havre as slight favourites at home (2.55), with Brest at 2.90 and the draw at 3.20. But for me, the value lies in both teams getting on the scoresheet at 1.75. Both sides need the points, both have got attacking intent, and neither can defend to save their lives. That's a recipe for both teams to score if ever I saw one.