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Lecce host Bologna on 11 October in a Serie A fixture that pits two sides in distinctly different moods. Lecce's last five matches have produced two wins and three losses, with the most recent being a 0–3 defeat at AC Milan on 20 September. Bologna, meanwhile, have won none of their last five, managing two draws and three losses, though their most recent outing was a 1–1 draw with Torino at home on 19 September. Neither side is flying, but the underlying numbers tell a more nuanced story.
The venue record is where the edge becomes visible. Over 20 home games, Lecce have won 8, drawn 4 and lost 8, averaging 1.4 points per game and 1.05 goals scored. Bologna's away record over 20 games is 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses, with 1.6 points per game and 1.3 goals scored. Bologna's away numbers sit above Lecce's home numbers in both points and scoring output, while both sides concede 1.4 goals per game in their respective venues. Bologna also failed to score in only 6 of those 20 away games, compared to Lecce's 9 of 20 at home.
The head-to-head at this venue is thin. There have been no meetings at Lecce's ground within the last 12 months. The only recent meeting, on 12 April 2026, was at Bologna's ground and ended 2–0 to Bologna. Older meetings at Lecce's ground produced a 2–2 draw and a 0–0 draw, but those are historical and do not reflect current form. Across all 11 meetings spanning 14 years, Bologna have won 7, Lecce have won 0, and 4 have been draws. The head-to-head is dated, so current form and venue records carry more weight here.
Bologna's defensive numbers in their last 10 games are notable: they have conceded just 1.0 goals per game, compared to Lecce's 1.7. Lecce's xG against in their last five matches with data stands at 2.36 per game, while Bologna's xG against is 1.01 per game. That gap in defensive output is significant and suggests Bologna are the more solid side going into this one.
The counter-argument is that Bologna's recent form is genuinely poor — no wins in five matches — and Lecce did pick up a 3–2 win over Monza at home on 13 September. Lecce's home record over 20 games does include 8 wins, and the older meetings at this venue produced draws. However, those older results are historical, and Bologna's away record over 20 games is the more consistent and productive one. Lecce's xG for in recent games is 0.94 per game, which is modest, and they have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
Key Points:
- Bologna's away record (10W 2D 8L, 1.6 ppg) outperforms Lecce's home record (8W 4D 8L, 1.4 ppg)
- Bologna have conceded 1.0 goals per game in their last 10; Lecce have conceded 1.7
- No meetings at Lecce's ground within the last 12 months; the only recent H2H was Bologna 2–0
- Lecce's xG against in recent games is 2.36 per game; Bologna's is 1.01 per game
- Both sides have underperformed in recent form, but Bologna's underlying defensive numbers remain solid
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