Preview
Alright, gather round the bar, lads. We've got a proper mismatch down in Puglia this Saturday as Lecce host the runaway leaders Inter. Now, I know what you're thinking – "Mr Simple, this is a foregone conclusion, innit?" Well, you're probably right, but let's have a butcher's hook at the numbers anyway.
Lecce have had a bit of a wobble lately, sitting 17th in the table with just 24 points from 25 games. It's been grim viewing for the home fans – only six wins all season and a goal difference that reads like a horror story at minus fourteen. But hold your horses, because they've actually shown a bit of fight recently. Back-to-back wins against Cagliari (2-0 away) and Udinese (2-1 at home) have given them a glimmer of hope. That's two wins on the bounce after a run where they'd only managed one victory in their previous eight. The problem? Those wins came against mid-table fodder. Now they're facing the big boys.
And speaking of the big boys, Inter are absolutely flying. Twenty wins from twenty-five games, sat pretty at the top with 61 points – that's eight clear of second-placed Milan. The league leaders have been relentless, winning eight of their last ten matches. They've stuck five past Sassuolo, six past Pisa, and even managed a quality 2-0 away win at Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League. The only blot on their copybook was a 3-1 home defeat to Arsenal, but even the best have off days.
The head-to-head makes for ugly reading if you're a Lecce supporter. In nine meetings, Lecce have never beaten Inter – that's zero wins, one draw, eight defeats. Inter have won the last five on the bounce without conceding a single goal, including a 1-0 victory when these two met just last month. Lecce haven't even managed to score against Inter in their last five attempts. It's been total dominance.
Looking at the recent form stats, Inter are averaging 2.3 goals per game while Lecce are scraping by with just 0.6. Defensively, Inter have kept six clean sheets in their last ten, whereas Lecce have managed just two. When Inter go on their travels, they've been tighter than a drum – zero goals conceded in their last five away games according to the form guide. Lecce, meanwhile, have been leaking 1.6 goals per game at home.
The bookies have Inter at 1.40 to win, which is shorter than a London cabbie's temper, but frankly, it's justified. Lecce's mini-revival is commendable, but against this Inter machine – who are scoring for fun and defending like their lives depend on it – I can't see anything other than an away win. The value hunters among you might turn your noses up at 1.40, and fair play, it's not going to buy you a new motor. But sometimes you've got to call a spade a spade.
Key Points:
• Lecce are 17th in Serie A with just 6 wins from 25 games, though they've won their last 2 matches (2-0 vs Cagliari, 2-1 vs Udinese)
• Inter lead the table with 61 points, winning 20 of 25 games and 8 of their last 10
• Head-to-head record is brutal for Lecce: 0 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses in 9 meetings; Inter have won the last 5 without conceding
• Inter have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 games and conceded 0 goals in their last 5 away matches
• Lecce have only managed 0.6 goals per game over their last 10, scoring in just 4 of those matches
• Inter are averaging 2.3 goals per game with an 80% win rate in their last 10
Summary:
Inter should stroll this one. Lecce's recent form is encouraging but they're facing a juggernaut that has their number historically and is playing with the confidence of champions-elect. At 1.40 it's not a value punter's dream, but the probability of an Inter win is sky-high given the gulf in class and that dominant head-to-head record. I'm backing the away win, but keep your stakes sensible – this is a banker for an accumulator, not a get-rich-quick single.
