Preview
PajimonRight, so I've got my braai going, a cold one in hand, and I'm looking at this Lecco versus Alcione fixture for Serie C Girone A, and I'll tell you — this one's got the smell of a home win for Lecco. And I'm not just saying that because I'm feeling generous after the first round of beers. The numbers back it up, and I'll walk you through it.
Start with the head-to-head, because it's the most telling thing in this fixture. In the last 12 months, Lecco have won both meetings against Alcione — 1–0 at Lecco's ground on 8 December 2025 and 2–0 at Alcione's ground on 10 April 2026. Three goals scored, zero conceded across those two games. And if you go back further, the older meetings — which I'll treat as historical, not current form — show Lecco winning again at home in 2024 and a 0–0 draw at Alcione in 2025. Across all four meetings, Lecco have won three, drawn one, and not lost. Not once. That's a pattern, and it's a one-sided one.
Now look at the home and away records. Over 20 home games, Lecco have 6 wins, 10 draws and 4 losses, averaging 1.4 points per game. They concede 0.9 goals per game at home and have kept 11 clean sheets in those 20. Alcione, on the other hand, have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in 20 away games, averaging 0.95 points per game. They concede 1.25 per game away and have only 5 clean sheets. The gap in results is clear: Lecco have 6 wins at home to Alcione's 4 away, and the points per game tells the same story.
Alcione's recent form is the real concern. In their last five matches, they have not kept a single clean sheet. They've conceded 11 goals in five games — 2.2 per game — including a 0–4 defeat to Union Brescia at home on 20 September. Their defence is leaking, and that's not a small thing when you're going to a ground where the home side concedes less than a goal a game.
Lecco's own form is decent. Two wins, two draws and one loss in their last five, with 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. They drew 2–2 with Union Brescia at home on 4 October and beat Giana Erminio 1–0 at home on 13 September. Not a dominant run, but solid enough, and the home record does a lot of the heavy lifting.
The counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play: Alcione have scored 1.4 goals per game in their last 10 and both teams have scored in 7 of those 10. In their last five, 4 of 5 games went over 2.5 goals. So there's a case that this could be a bit more open than the head-to-head suggests. Lecco themselves have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5. But the head-to-head says 4 out of 4 meetings finished under 2.5, and Lecco's home record has 14 of 20 under 2.5. I'm not chasing the over here.
Key Points:
- Lecco won both recent head-to-head meetings (1–0 and 2–0), scoring 3 and conceding 0
- Lecco's home record: 6W 10D 4L, 0.9 conceded per game, 11 clean sheets in 20
- Alcione's away record: 4W 7D 9L, 1.25 conceded per game, 5 clean sheets in 20
- Alcione have 0 clean sheets in their last 5 matches, conceding 2.2 per game
- All 4 head-to-head meetings finished under 2.5 goals
So here's where I land: I'm going with the Lecco home win at 1.91. The head-to-head is one-sided, the home record is solid, and Alcione's defence is in no shape to travel. Boet, this is the one.