Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so Lecco are hosting Alcione on 11 October in Serie C Girone A, and if you've got a pen and a bit of paper, the head-to-head here is doing the talking for us. In the last four meetings between these two, Lecco have won three, drawn one, and Alcione haven't managed a single win. Not one. And the cherry on top: Lecco conceded zero goals across all four of those games. The scores were 2–0, 1–0, 0–0 and 1–0. That's a team that knows how to shut the other side down — in the last two meetings within the past year, Lecco have won both and kept clean sheets.
Now, the home and away numbers back it up nicely. Over their last 20 home games, Lecco have picked up 6 wins, 10 draws and 4 losses, averaging 1.4 points per game and keeping 11 clean sheets. Alcione, on the other hand, have managed just 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 away trips, averaging 0.95 points per game and keeping only 5 clean sheets. Lecco score 0.85 a game at home; Alcione manage 0.7 on the road. Lecco concede 0.9; Alcione concede 1.25. On every meaningful measure, the home side is the stronger proposition.
Recent form leans Lecco's way too. Their last five has been 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss at 1.6 points per game, while Alcione have managed 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss at 1.2. Lecco beat Giana Erminio 1–0 at home on 13 September and won 3–1 at Desenzano Calvina on 17 September. Alcione's last five includes a 0–4 defeat to Union Brescia at home on 20 September, and they've drawn their last two — 2–2 with Trento and 1–1 at Albinoleffe.
The counter-argument, and I'll be fair, is that Lecco's last two home games have been a 2–2 draw with Union Brescia and a 0–0 with Pergolettese, and they did get thumped 0–3 by Cittadella on the road two weeks ago. Alcione have been involved in some open games recently — four of their last five saw both teams score, and four went over 2.5 goals. So if you're thinking this could be a scrappy, end-to-end affair, there's a thread of evidence for that. But the H2H says Lecco keep it tight, and the home record says they do it more often than not.
Key Points:
- Lecco won 3 of the last 4 meetings with Alcione and conceded 0 goals across all four
- Lecco's home record (6W 10D 4L, 1.4 ppg) is a clear step above Alcione's away record (4W 7D 9L, 0.95 ppg)
- Lecco's last 5: 2W 2D 1L at 1.6 ppg; Alcione's last 5: 1W 3D 1L at 1.2 ppg
- All 4 H2H meetings finished under 2.5 goals, and Lecco kept 4 clean sheets
- Alcione have only won 1 of their last 5 and lost 0–4 to Union Brescia at home on 20 September
My pick: Lecco home win at 1.91. The numbers don't lie — Lecco have got the edge at home, the head-to-head is their territory, and the market at 52.36% is giving you a price that I think is a shade too generous for what the evidence actually points to.