Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Leganes hosting Cordoba on 16 October in the Segunda, and if you've been following Leganes' last three games, you'll know they've been absolutely silent up top. Three losses, zero goals scored, nine conceded. That's not a team finding their feet — that's a team looking for the exit.
And here's the thing that really catches my eye: when these two met at Leganes' ground back in December, it finished 0-0. Leganes failed to score. Now, that's just one meeting, but it sits right alongside a home record where 13 of their 20 games at this ground ended with at least one team not scoring. In their last 10 games across all grounds, 8 of them were both-teams-not-to-score. The pattern is hard to ignore.
Cordoba, to be fair, are no angels either. Seven losses in their last 10, and they lost to Eldense just six days ago. Their current run is a single loss, but the wider picture is grim — 0.9 points per game over that stretch. They did grab a 3-2 win at home against Tenerife and a 2-1 away at Albacete, so they've got the ability to find the net.
And that's the counter-argument I have to be honest about. Cordoba's away record over 20 games shows them scoring in 17 of those 20. In their last 10 games, 8 of them saw both teams find the net. So the question becomes: can Leganes' recent scoring drought — three straight games without a goal — really override Cordoba's habit of finding the back of the net on the road?
I think it can, or at least it tips the balance. Leganes have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 games, 6 of their last 10, and 7 of their 20 home games. The 0-0 at this very ground in December adds a layer of familiarity. When a team is this quiet for three straight matches, the odds of them suddenly finding a goal in a home game against a side that's also struggling feel stretched.
The market has both teams to score at 1.62, implying about 62% chance. I'd put my own estimate closer to 52%, which means the 2.42 price on both teams not to score is where the value sits for me.
Key Points:
- Leganes have scored zero goals in their last three matches (0-3 at Almeria, 0-4 at Cadiz, 0-2 at home to Castellón)
- The last meeting at Leganes' ground finished 0-0 in December
- Leganes' home record shows 13 of 20 games ended with at least one team failing to score
- Cordoba's away record is the main counter: 17 of 20 away games saw both teams score
- Both sides are in poor recent form, with Leganes on a 3-game losing run and Cordoba 7 down in 10
My pick: both teams not to score at 2.42.