Leganes vs Mallorca Prediction

Right, so here's the thing — Leganes have lost their last four games and haven't scored a single goal in any of them. Ten goals conceded, zero on the board. That's not a bad run, that's a nightmare. They lost 0-1 to Córdoba at home on 16 October, then got thumped 0-3 at Almería and 0-4 at Cádiz, and before that 0-2 to Castellón at home. The only bright spot in the last five was a 3-2 win over Granada back on 20 September, and that feels like a lifetime ago.

Now, Mallorca are in a completely different world. Five wins, three draws and two losses in their last ten, averaging 1.8 points per game. They beat Las Palmas 3-1 at home on 11 October and got a 1-1 draw at Eibar on 17 October. Their xG numbers in the last two games show them creating 1.32 per game while facing 1.15 against — that's a team in control.

The counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play: Leganes' home record over 20 games is actually respectable. Ten wins, five draws, five losses, scoring 1.3 per game and conceding 0.9. That's a team that can turn up at home. And Mallorca's away record over 20 games is genuinely poor — three wins, six draws, eleven losses. So the home side has a decent track record at this ground, and the visitors struggle on the road.

But here's the rub: the last two home games for Leganes were 0-1 and 0-2 losses. The 20-game record is one thing, but the current form is another. And the head-to-head is entirely historical — no meetings in the last 12 months — so I can't use it to say either side has an edge. The older meetings at Leganes's ground (two of them) both ended 0-1 to Mallorca, but that's years ago and I'm not treating it as a trend.

Key Points:

• Leganes have lost 4 straight, scoring 0 and conceding 10

• Mallorca are 5W 3D 2L in their last 10, averaging 1.8 points per game

• Leganes' 20-game home record: 10W 5D 5L, 1.3 goals per game

• Mallorca's 20-game away record: 3W 6D 11L, 0.7 goals per game

• No head-to-head meetings within the last 12 months

The market has Mallorca at 2.35 for the win, which prices them at about 42.55%. My own read, looking at the form gap and the xG numbers, is that Mallorca's chance sits just above that — I'd put it around 44%. The four-game losing streak with zero goals is a massive red flag for Leganes, and while their home record is decent, the current form tells a very different story.

My tip: away win.