Leicester vs Bristol City Prediction

Alright, listen up. Leicester are in the mire, proper relegation scrap stuff. Sat 23rd in the table with just 34 points from 35 games, the Foxes haven't won a match in ten attempts - that's five draws and five defeats if you're keeping score. And don't look at their home record for comfort, mate, because it's been brutal: four straight losses at their gaff, shipping 2.5 goals a game like they're handing out gifts.

Bristol City, on the other hand, are having a half-decent campaign parked in 10th. The Robins have been a bit up and down lately - three wins, two draws, five losses in their last ten - but they've shown they can mix it with the promotion chasers. They nicked a cracking 3-2 win at Hull City (who are flying high in 5th with over two points per game) and beat Blackburn 2-1 on the road. Funny thing is, they've been better away from Ashton Gate (40% win rate) than at home (20%), so travelling suits them just fine.

Now, the history books say Leicester have won both home meetings against City, but that counts for nothing when you're playing like this. The Foxes managed a 1-1 draw with Ipswich last time out, which looks alright on paper, but before that they were losing to the likes of Charlton (0-2 at home) and Oxford United (1-2 at home) - teams struggling near the bottom with less than a point per game. When you're dropping points to relegation candidates at your own gaff, something's gone proper west. They even got thumped 3-4 by Southampton and 0-2 by Norwich in recent weeks.

The goal expectancies fancy Bristol City to outscore the hosts (1.75 to 1.10), and given Leicester couldn't keep a clean sheet in a butcher's shop window (zero in ten games), the visitors look the value play at 3/1. The Foxes are overperforming their expected goals by a chunk (0.32), suggesting they've been lucky and are due a regression, while Bristol City are actually underperforming slightly (-0.09), meaning they're due a bit of luck.

Key Points:

• Leicester winless in 10 games (0-5-5 record), including four straight home defeats to Charlton, Oxford, Birmingham and Norwich

• Bristol City sit 10th with 50 points, 16 clear of the drop zone, and beat promotion-chasing Hull City 3-2 away recently

• Foxes conceding 2.5 goals per game at home recently, keeping zero clean sheets in last 10

• Robins have won 40% of away games compared to just 20% at home

• Leicester overperforming their expected goals by 0.32 (due a regression), Bristol City underperforming by -0.09 (due an improvement)

Summary:

Bristol City at 3.00 represents decent value against a Leicester side that's forgotten how to win. The Foxes' home advantage is negated by their shocking form, and while the head-to-head history favors the hosts, current form trumps ancient history. The Robins have enough about them to nick this.