Right, so we've got Leicester at home to Doncaster on 17 October, and if I'm being honest, this one's a proper toss-up.
Let's start with the Foxes. They've lost their last two — 1–3 at home to Peterborough on 10 October and 1–2 at Stevenage in the Trophy on 6 October — and that's not the sort of form you want heading into a league game. Two games, two goals scored, five conceded. Ouch. But look at the other side of their last five: they hammered Fulham U21 6–1 at home on 22 September and pulled off a 4–3 away win at Stockport County on 12 September. So there's a team in there that can score, even if the defence is leaking. Their home record over 20 games is 7 wins, 3 draws, 10 losses, which isn't exactly a strong base to build on, and they've conceded 1.6 a game at home.
Now Doncaster. They've won their last three — 1–0 at Burton Albion on 10 October, 1–0 at Liverpool U21 in the Trophy on 6 October, and 2–0 at Peterborough on 19 September — and they've kept a clean sheet in all three. That's a run that's got some real quality to it. Their away record over 20 games is 8 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses, which actually edges out Leicester's home numbers, and they've only conceded 1.15 a game on the road. Their xG against is sitting at 0.63 a game, which tells you they're not getting punished when they do get caught.
The head-to-head, I'm afraid, is a bit of a ghost. The last time these two met was 3 May 2014, and before that 5 October 2013 and 7 April 2012. Three games, all in the Championship, all over a decade ago. Leicester won two, Doncaster won one. It's historical record, not current form, so I'd put it in the bin and focus on what's happening now.
The xG numbers are interesting. Leicester are creating 1.7 expected goals a game, which is well above Doncaster's 0.9. But Leicester's xG against is 0.94, and they've actually conceded 5 in those three games with data. Doncaster's xG against is 0.63, which is genuinely tight. So you've got a team that scores a lot but also lets a lot in, up against a team that keeps it small and plays for the win.
The over/under picture is split. Leicester have had over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, but Doncaster have had under 2.5 in 4 of their last 5. Their away record shows 9 unders in 20, while Leicester's home record shows 8 unders in 20. It's genuinely a coin-flip on the goals.
Key Points:
- Leicester lost their last two (scored 2, conceded 5) but scored 13 in their last five
- Doncaster won their last three with clean sheets (scored 4, conceded 0)
- Doncaster's away record (8W 6D 6L) edges Leicester's home record (7W 3D 10L)
- The head-to-head is over a decade old and offers no current insight
- Leicester's xG for (1.7/game) is well above Doncaster's (0.9/game), but Doncaster's xG against (0.63) is very tight
No Bet. The form points to Doncaster, the attack points to Leicester, and the price doesn't give me a clear edge on either side. I'd rather watch this one than gamble on it.
