Leicester vs Peterborough Prediction

Leicester's case for the win rests on their home record and the overall difference in their records. Over their last 20 home games, spanning from 26 December 2025 to 22 September 2026, Leicester have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 10, scoring 1.5 goals per game. Peterborough's away record over 20 games, from 27 January 2026 to 26 September 2026, shows 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses, with just 1.1 goals per game. Leicester's home scoring edge of 1.5 to 1.1 per game is the most telling comparison between the two sides in this fixture.

However, Leicester's recent form at home has been a concern. Five weeks before kickoff, they were beaten 0–4 by Oxford United at their own ground, and four days before this match they lost 1–2 at Stevenage in the EFL Trophy. Their current run is a single loss. Peterborough, meanwhile, came in with a 4–1 home win over Ipswich Town U21 on 6 October, and their last five matches mirror Leicester's record exactly: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses.

The head-to-head between these two clubs is entirely historical. The four recorded meetings all date from 2012 to 2018, with the most recent on 27 January 2018, when Leicester won 5–1 at Peterborough's ground in the FA Cup. With no meetings within the last 12 months, this record offers no insight into how the two sides would match up in the current competitive environment.

Both teams' last 10 games show identical records of 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with both averaging 1.7 goals scored per game. Leicester concede 1.7 per game over that stretch while Peterborough concede 1.6. Leicester have failed to score in 2 of their last 10, compared to Peterborough's 4. On the goals market, both teams' last 10 games show 6 over 2.5 and 4 under 2.5, and both have seen both teams score in 7 and 6 of those 10 respectively.

The market prices Leicester's win at 1.6, implying a 62.50% chance. My own reading of the evidence puts Leicester's probability closer to the mid-50s. The home record and the scoring edge favour Leicester, but the 0–4 home defeat to Oxford and the 1–2 loss at Stevenage four days ago show a side that is not as solid as the home record suggests. Peterborough's 4–1 win on 6 October and their 2 wins in 5 recent games mean they are not a team to dismiss.

Key Points:

• Leicester's 20-game home record (7W 3D 10L) and 1.5 goals per game at home edge Peterborough's away record (6W 3D 11L, 1.1 per game)

• Leicester lost 0–4 at home to Oxford United on 5 September and 1–2 at Stevenage on 6 October

• Peterborough won 4–1 at home on 6 October; both teams' last 5 are 2W 1D 2L

• The head-to-head is entirely historical (2012–2018), with no meetings in the last 12 months

• Both teams' last 10 games show identical 3W 3D 4L records with 1.7 goals scored per game

No Bet. The football does not give me the certainty I need. Leicester are the stronger side on the evidence, but the 0–4 home loss and the 1–2 defeat four days ago mean I cannot rate their chance high enough to back them at 1.6. The price asks for a level of conviction the recent results do not support.