Leicester vs Peterborough Prediction

Leicester and Peterborough meet on 10 October in League One, and for the little guy in this fixture, the road to a surprise is a long one. I love a pup with a chance, but I have to be honest about what the numbers are telling me.

The football evidence leans Leicester's way. Their home record over 20 games shows 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses, with 1.5 goals scored per game and 1.55 conceded. Peterborough's away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses, with 1.1 goals scored per game and 1.55 conceded. The head-to-head is entirely historical — the last meeting was back in January 2018, eight years ago — but it does show Leicester winning 2 of 4 meetings, including a 5-1 away win at Peterborough in the FA Cup. With no meetings within the last 12 months, I'm leaning on current form and venue records rather than that dated history.

Leicester's recent form is mixed. Their last five games produced 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, including a 0-4 home defeat to Oxford United on 5 September and a 1-2 loss at Stevenage on 6 October. They did, however, beat Fulham U21 6-1 at home on 22 September and won 4-3 at Stockport County on 12 September. Peterborough's last five are also mixed: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. Their most recent result was a 4-1 home win over Ipswich Town U21 on 6 October, but before that they lost 0-1 at Stockport County and 0-2 at home to Doncaster. Both teams are in similar recent shape — over their latest 10 games, both sides have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, both score 1.7 goals per game, and both have 6 over-2.5 games.

The best counter-argument for Peterborough is that the gap isn't as wide as it first appears. Both teams are in the same recent shape, both concede around 1.6 to 1.7 goals per game over their last 10, and Peterborough have scored in 14 of their 20 away games. The head-to-head is split 2-2, and the 2013 meeting at Peterborough's ground saw them win 2-1. There's a thread of history here that says the little guy can find a way.

But the honest truth is that the gap between these two sides is significant. Leicester's home record is the better of the two venue records, their recent scoring output (2.4 goals per game in the last five) outpaces Peterborough's (2.0 per game), and Peterborough have failed to score in 4 of their last 10 games. The market prices Leicester at 1.6 for a win, with a bookmaker-implied probability of 62.50%, while Peterborough sit at 4.8, implying 20.83%. My own read puts Peterborough's win chance below that 20.83% figure, and the draw at 4.6 (21.74% implied) doesn't clear my bar either. When the numbers don't back the pup, I'd rather sit this one out than chase a long shot that isn't there.

Key Points:

• Leicester's home record (7W 3D 10L in 20 games) edges Peterborough's away record (6W 3D 11L in 20 games)

• Both teams are in similar recent shape: 3W 3D 4L in their latest 10 games

• The head-to-head is entirely historical, with the last meeting in January 2018

• Peterborough have failed to score in 4 of their last 10 games

• Leicester's last five include a 0-4 home loss and a 1-2 away loss

No Bet.