Leicester vs Southampton Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship clash. Leicester are in a right old pickle, sitting down in 21st and looking over their shoulder. Southampton, meanwhile, are bobbing along in 14th, not setting the world alight but looking a lot more solid. The form book doesn't lie, and it's telling a grim tale for the Foxes.

Leicester have lost six of their last ten, and the recent home defeats are the real worry. Losing 0-2 to Charlton and 1-2 to Oxford United – teams who've been struggling themselves – is the sort of result that gets managers the sack. They've only picked up one point from their last three league games and haven't scored in their last two at home. The stats are bleak: just one clean sheet in ten, conceding an average of 1.6 goals a game. They're creating chances at home (over 12 shots a game) but only hitting the target 2.6 times on average – that finishing needs to sharpen up, and fast.

Southampton, on the other hand, are ticking along nicely. They've won three of their last five, including a 1-0 win over Watford and a 2-0 victory at Stoke. They're keeping it tight at the back, with four clean sheets in their last ten outings. Away from home, they're scoring at a decent clip (1.33 goals per game) but are also conceding a few (1.67). The head-to-head makes for interesting reading. Historically, Leicester have had the upper hand, winning five of the eight meetings. But forget ancient history – the last time they met, back in November, Southampton walloped them 3-0. That's the recent memory that'll be in the players' minds.

So, what's the bet? The maths and the story both point to goals. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.83. Let's break it down. Six of the last eight meetings between these two have seen three or more goals. Leicester's last ten games have seen eight overs, and they're conceding for fun. Southampton's last five away games have seen three overs. With both sides needing a result – Leicester desperately, Southampton to keep momentum – I can see this being an open, end-to-end affair. The goal expectancies suggest nearly three goals on average. At those odds, there's value.

Key Points:

Leicester are in dire form, with 0 points from their last 3 league games.

Southampton have won 3 of their last 5, keeping 3 clean sheets in that run.

The last H2H meeting was a 3-0 win for Southampton.

Over 2.5 goals has landed in 6 of the last 8 H2H clashes.

• Leicester's matches have seen Over 2.5 in 8 of their last 10.

In summary, it's hard to see past Southampton getting at least a point here given the contrasting form. But the real value, in my book, is in the goals market. Leicester's defence is too leaky, and Southampton have shown they can score on the road. I'm expecting both nets to ripple and for there to be at least three goals in it.