Right, so Leicester are at home on 31 October to take on Stevenage, and if you've been following the Foxes' form, this one looks like a good shout.
Leicester have been in proper form of late. Four days before this one, they put 3 past Wigan at home, and before that they went out and thrashed Bromley 4-0 on the road. In their last five games, they've scored 11 and conceded just 6, averaging 2.2 a game. Every single one of those five has gone over 2.5 goals, and they haven't failed to score in any of them. Their xG numbers back it up too — they're creating 2.12 chances a game while only facing 1.02 against. Stevenage, by comparison, are creating 1.25 a game and facing 1.25 against. That's a gap that's hard to ignore.
Stevenage, on the other hand, have been a bit patchy. They lost 0-1 to MK Dons at home just seven days ago and went down 0-2 at Bradford two weeks back. In their last five, they've only managed 6 goals, averaging 1.2 a game, and three of those five have finished under 2.5. Their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses, with just 1.15 goals scored per game. That's not a great track record on the road.
Now, the counter-argument is worth a mention. Stevenage did beat Leicester 2-1 three weeks ago at their own ground in the EFL Trophy, and their last 10 games show 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses at 1.9 points per game. They've only conceded 0.8 a game in that stretch, which is tidy. And Leicester's home record over 20 games is 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses — not the most impressive record. So Stevenage aren't the team you'd automatically write off, and that recent win at Stevenage's ground does count for something.
But the xG gap and the scoring numbers are hard to dismiss. Leicester have gone over 2.5 in all five recent games while Stevenage have only done it twice. Leicester have failed to score in 0 of their last 5, while Stevenage have gone blank in 2 of 5 and 4 of 10. The quality of football Leicester are producing at home is a step above what Stevenage are managing on the road.
Key Points:
- Leicester have scored 2.2 goals per game in their last five and gone over 2.5 in all of them
- Stevenage's away record over 20 games is 5W 4D 11L, with just 1.15 goals scored per game
- The head-to-head is limited to a single EFL Trophy meeting three weeks ago, which Stevenage won 2-1
- Leicester's xG for (2.12 per game) is well ahead of Stevenage's (1.25 per game)
- Stevenage have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 and 4 of their last 10
The market has Leicester at 1.78 to win, which prices them at 56.18%. My own read of the form, the xG numbers and the venue records puts Leicester's chances in the mid-fifties — solid favourites, but not at a level where the price offers me the value I'm after. The evidence points to Leicester, but I can't stretch my confidence far enough to back them at this price.
No Bet.
