Leon vs Santos Laguna Prediction

Alright, gather round! We've got a right old relegation six-pointer down in Mexico this weekend – Leon hosting Santos Laguna in what can only be described as a clash of the strugglers. Both these sides are having a shocker, but someone's gotta win... surely?

Let's start with the hosts. Leon are 16th in the table with just four points from six games, and their recent form makes for grim reading – one win in their last ten, losing seven of them. They got turned over 1-0 by Monterrey last week and couldn't find the net against Queretaro the week before. But hang on, there's a glimmer of hope! Their only win in this miserable run came against Cruz Azul – and they're second in the league! Beat the high-flyers, lose to everyone else... typical football, ain't it?

Now, Santos Laguna. Blimey, where do we start? Bottom of the pile with one measly point from six games. They just lost 1-2 at home to Mazatlan – that's the second-worst team in the division! They've been on the receiving end of some proper hidings lately: 1-5 against Tigres, 0-4 against Pumas, shipping goals like there's no tomorrow. Away from home it's even worse – they're conceding 3.6 goals per game on the road with zero wins in their last five trips.

The head-to-head makes lovely reading for Leon fans. At home against Santos, they've won three and drawn one – that's a 75% win rate. The last time these two met, Santos nicked it 2-0, but before that Leon had won three on the bounce against them.

Here's the kicker – neither of these lot can defend! Leon haven't kept a clean sheet in their last ten games, and Santos have managed just one in the same period. With Santos leaking 2.6 goals per game on average (and 3.6 away), and the goal expectancy sitting at nearly 3.7 total goals for this match, we're expecting a few net-bulgers.

Key Points:

• Leon have won 75% of home games against Santos Laguna historically

• Santos have conceded 13 goals in 6 league games – the worst defensive record in Liga MX

• Leon have kept zero clean sheets in their last 10 matches across all competitions

• Santos have lost 80% of their recent away games, conceding an average of 3.6 goals per trip

• Both teams have seen BTTS land in 70-80% of their recent fixtures

Summary:

Look, Leon have been poor – there's no dressing that up. But they're playing the absolute whipping boys of the division who can't stop conceding goals away from home. At 1.62, the home win is the play. Santos are there for the taking, and if Leon can't beat this lot at home, they really are in trouble. Back Leon to finally get three points on the board.