Leon vs Toluca Prediction

Right, so we've got Leon hosting Toluca on 24 October in Liga MX, and if you've been keeping an eye on the scoring numbers, this one's got a story worth telling.

The strongest case here is simple: both these sides are scoring. Toluca have netted in every one of their last five games — 2–2 with Tijuana, 1–1 with San Luis, 2–3 at Tigres, 1–2 at Monterrey, 3–3 at Cruz Azul. That's five out of five, and they've failed to score in zero of their last ten. Leon are in the same boat, scoring in all five of their recent matches, including that 2–0 away at Tigres just three days before this one. Look at the home and away records and it gets even more telling: Leon have gone blank in just 1 of their last 20 home games, while Toluca have failed to score in 5 of their last 20 away. The head-to-head backs it up too — 13 of the last 20 meetings between these two have seen both teams find the net. Toluca's xG for sits at 1.92 per game over their last five, and Leon's is 1.69. Both sides are creating chances and converting them.

Now, the counter-argument. Toluca's away record is a bit patchy — 6 wins, 5 draws, 9 losses in 20 away games — and they haven't won in five. Leon's recent over-2.5 record is only 2 out of 5, and the market is clearly favouring Toluca as the side to get the result. There's a case this could be a tight, low-scoring affair, especially given Toluca's xG against is just 1.0 per game over their last five. The two recent head-to-head meetings both went to Toluca at their own ground, so there's no recent precedent for what happens at Leon's end. But when two sides are netting in every single game they play, that consistency is hard to ignore.

Key Points:

• Toluca have scored in 5 of their last 5 and 10 of their last 10 games

• Leon have scored in 5 of their last 5 and 19 of their last 20 home games

• 13 of the last 20 head-to-head meetings have seen both teams score

• Toluca's away record is 6W 5D 9L in 20 games, but their scoring hasn't dropped off

• The market prices both teams to score at 1.53, implying a 65.36% chance

My take: I rate the chance of both teams scoring at around 72%, which sits comfortably above the market's 65.36% view. The numbers don't lie — when two sides are netting in every game they play, the best value in the market is on both of them finding the net.

Verdict: Both teams to score.