Levante vs Athletic Club Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this La Liga scrap between two sides who've been struggling more than a one-legged man in an arse-kicking contest. Levante are propping up the table with just 9 points, while Athletic Club are sitting pretty in mid-table on 17 points, but don't let that fool you - both teams have been about as consistent as my ex's excuses.

Levante's home form has been absolutely shocking, mate. They've not won a single one of their last three at their own patch, and they're shipping goals like there's no tomorrow - three per game on average at home! They've been leaking goals left, right, and centre, getting battered 3-0 by Rayo Vallecano and 4-1 by Real Madrid in front of their own fans. To be fair, they did show some spark away from home with that 4-3 win at Orihuela in the cup, but that's like finding a fiver in an old coat - nice surprise, but it won't pay the bills.

Athletic Club, on the other hand, have been proper shocking on their travels. Zero wins in their last six away games, and they're only managing half a goal per game on the road. Their away defence is about as solid as a chocolate teapot too - letting in over two goals per game away from home. They just got stuffed 4-0 by Barcelona and could only manage a goalless draw against Slavia Praha in Europe.

Now here's the interesting bit - these two have history, and it's all one-way traffic. Athletic have NEVER lost to Levante in nine meetings. Five wins and four draws for the Basques. But here's the thing that catches my eye - seven of those nine games saw both teams find the net. Both sides know how to concede, that's for sure.

Looking at the numbers, both teams are averaging over a goal conceded per game recently, and when you've got a home side shipping three per game and an away side letting in over two, you're looking at potential goal-fest territory. The goal expectancy is sitting at around 3.17 goals for this one, which tells me we could be in for a bit of fun.

Both teams are desperate for different reasons - Levante to climb off the bottom, Athletic to get their away form sorted. When desperation meets poor defending, you usually get goals, lots of them. And at 2.10 for Over 2.5, I reckon there's value to be had here.