Right, so we've got Levante hosting Athletic Club on 21 October, and if I'm being honest, this one's got me scratching my head a bit.
On one hand, Athletic Club have won both of their recent meetings with Levante โ 4โ2 at Athletic Club's ground and 0โ2 at Levante's ground. Two clean wins, no drama. And their last five games have been unbeaten: two wins and three draws, with just one goal conceded across the lot. That's a tight, disciplined side.
On the other hand, their last three have been draws โ 0โ0 at Valencia, 0โ0 against Alaves, 1โ1 with Elche. One goal scored in three games. That's not the Athletic Club who beat Atletico Madrid 3โ0 on 5 September. They've gone quiet, and that quietness is what's got me thinking about the scoreline.
Levante at home over their last 20 games have been solid โ 11 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses, averaging 1.9 points per game. That's a decent record. But their last five? Zero wins. Three draws and two losses, and they've conceded 11 goals in that stretch. The 3โ3 draw with Sevilla and the 2โ4 loss to Barcelona at home show they're not keeping it tight. Their current run is two draws, and they've been leaking goals.
The matchup table tells me Levante at home average 1.8 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game over 20 games, while Athletic Club away average 1.85 scored and 1.4 conceded. So both sides are capable of scoring, but Athletic Club's recent form says they're not doing it with any regularity.
Here's the thing that keeps nagging at me: Athletic Club's last three games have been 0โ0, 0โ0 and 1โ1. Four of their last five have been under 2.5 goals. Their away record over 20 games has 9 under 2.5. Levante's home record has 11 under 2.5. That's a lot of low-scoring football pointing in the same direction.
But then I look at Levante's last two home games โ 3โ3 and 2โ4 โ and that's twelve goals in two games. Their last five has three over 2.5. So the home end of this fixture has been anything but quiet.
The market has Athletic Club as favourites at 2.24, with the draw at 3.52 and Levante at 3.77. Under 2.5 is priced at 1.92, and both teams not to score at 2.05.
I've looked at every angle I can. Athletic Club are the better side on form and head-to-head, but their current run of three draws with one goal scored doesn't give me the confidence to back them at 2.24. Levante's home record is strong over 20 games, but their last five says they're struggling. The low-scoring trend is there, but Levante's recent home games have been goal-festivals, and I can't honestly say I rate under 2.5 or both teams not to score high enough to feel comfortable.
Key Points:
- Athletic Club won both recent head-to-head meetings (4โ2 and 0โ2) and are unbeaten in their last five
- Athletic Club's last three games have been 0โ0, 0โ0 and 1โ1 โ one goal scored in total
- Levante's home record over 20 games is strong (11W 5D 4L) but their last five has zero wins
- Four of Athletic Club's last five and 9 of their last 20 away games have been under 2.5 goals
- Levante's last two home games produced 12 goals between them (3โ3 and 2โ4)
No Bet.
