Preview
PajimonLook, I'm sitting here with my braai going and a cold one in hand, and I'm telling you this one's got a clear angle. Levante at home against Sevilla on the road, and the numbers don't lie — they're telling a story that's hard to ignore.
Start with the home record. Levante have won 11 of their last 20 home games, sitting at 1.85 points per game. They've scored 1.65 per game at home and conceded just 1.2. That's a side that comes to work on their own patch. Now look at Sevilla on the road: 6 wins, 4 draws, 10 losses in 20 away games. That's 1.1 points per game, scoring 1.05 per outing and conceding 1.5. Brother, that away record is a mess. You can't build a case on 10 losses in 20 trips.
And the head-to-head within the last 12 months? Levante won both. 2–0 at their ground in April, then 3–0 at Sevilla's place in January. Two clean sheets, five goals, zero conceded. That's not a coincidence — that's a pattern. The older meetings from 2021 and 2022 where Sevilla were winning are history, not form. I'm not building my bet on games from four or five years ago.
Now the counter-argument, and I'll be honest: both teams are on a two-game losing run. Levante dropped 1–3 to Villarreal and 2–4 to Barcelona in their last two. Sevilla lost 1–3 to Barcelona at home and 1–3 to Aston Villa in a friendly. So neither side is rolling. But here's the thing — Levante's losses came against Villarreal and Barcelona, and Sevilla's away record is still the weak link. A 2–4 loss to Barcelona at home doesn't tell you much about how they handle Sevilla on the road.
The goals data is interesting too. Levante have had over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, and Sevilla in 2 of 5. Both teams' home and away records sit around the 40-to-45 percent mark for over 2.5. It's a toss-up on goals, but the match winner leans home.
Key Points:
- Levante: 11W 4D 5L in 20 home games (1.85 PPG); Sevilla: 6W 4D 10L in 20 away games (1.1 PPG)
- Both recent head-to-head meetings (April and January 2026) were won by Levante, 2–0 and 3–0
- Both teams are on a 2-game losing run, but Levante's losses were to Villarreal and Barcelona
- Levante scored 1.65 per game at home; Sevilla scored just 1.05 per game away
So here's my call: I'm going with the Levante home win. The home record, the away record, and the recent head-to-head all point the same way. The price at 2.84 is fair for what the numbers are showing me.